Iran warns it could close Hormuz

Oil chokepoints are back at the center of Middle East politics. Iran is now openly warning Gulf states that if they line up behind a new U.S.-backed UN resolution on the Strait of Hormuz, they could end up closing the waterway on themselves “forever.” That matters because Hormuz is not some abstract map label — it is the narrow exit for a huge share of the world’s seaborne oil and gas. The new thing is the threat’s target: not just Washington, but Bahrain and other regional governments being asked to support a harder diplomatic push. ### What exactly did Iran say? On May 9, Ebrahim Azizi, who heads the Iranian parliament’s national security commission, warned Bahrain against siding with the U.S.-backed resolution and said the Strait of Hormuz is a vital lifeline that Gulf states should not risk closing on themselves “forever.” Around the same time, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy also warned that attacks on Iranian oil tankers or commercial vessels would bring a “heavy assault” on a U.S. base in the region and on enemy ships. (state.gov) ### Why is Bahrain in the crosshairs? Bahrain matters because it hosts the U.S. Navy’s regional headquarters, and it is one of the Gulf partners tied to the latest U.S. diplomatic push. The State Department said on May 5 that the United States, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar drafted a Security Council resolution focused on restoring navigation through Hormuz. So Iran’s message is basically coercive signaling — back this effort, and you share the consequences. (gulfcoastnewsnow.com) ### What is the UN resolution trying to do? The draft resolution is narrow but sharp. It demands that Iran stop attacking ships, stop laying mines, stop charging tolls, disclose where mines have been placed, and cooperate with a humanitarian corridor through the strait. One key detail is that the draft is framed under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which means enforcement measures — including sanctions and potentially military action — are part of the pressure package if Iran does not comply. (state.gov) ### Isn’t Hormuz already partly disrupted? Yes — and that is the real backdrop here. Iran has kept the waterway effectively constrained since the wider U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, and it had not reopened it during the ceasefire that started on April 8. The U.S. has also been blockading Iranian ports, and escort operations this week led to fresh exchanges of fire between U.S. and Iranian forces in and around the strait. (state.gov) ### Why is this chokepoint such a big deal? Because Hormuz is one of the world’s few true economic trapdoors. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas supply moves through it. Before the crisis, around 135 vessels crossed daily. After the effective closure began, crossings collapsed — one report cited just 116 total crossings between March 1 and March 25. That is why even a threat can move markets: ships reroute, insurers reprice risk, and buyers start paying up for certainty. (timesofisrael.com) ### Is Iran really threatening a full closure? Not exactly in the old all-or-nothing sense. The pattern this year has been selective access — friends or tolerated states can sometimes pass, while others face obstruction, toll demands, or military risk. That makes the threat more flexible and, in some ways, more powerful. Iran does not need to physically seal the waterway like a cork in a bottle. It just needs to make passage uncertain enough that the costs spike. (timesofisrael.com) ### What happens next? The immediate question is whether the Security Council vote happens and whether enough countries line up behind it without triggering another veto fight from Russia or China. The other question is whether the shaky ceasefire survives these new tanker strikes, escort clashes, and public threats. If it does not, Hormuz stops being a pressure point and becomes the war’s main economic battlefield. (time.com) ### Bottom line? Iran’s latest warning is not just bluster aimed at Washington. It is a message to Gulf governments, shippers, and insurers that backing the new UN push could carry a direct price. And because Hormuz is still the world’s most important oil chokepoint, even the warning is enough to keep energy and shipping nerves on edge. (state.gov)