Home Depot forecasts $164.7B revenue

Home Depot is in a weird spot right now. The business is still huge, still profitable, and still taking share. But the housing market around it is sluggish enough that investors can look at the same numbers and come away with opposite conclusions. That’s why this story is less about one flashy earnings beat and more about what kind of retailer Home Depot becomes when people stop moving houses and start fixing the ones they already have. ### What actually changed? The immediate news is that Home Depot is heading into its next earnings report on May 19, 2026 with a split analyst backdrop. In late February, the company reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.72 on $38.2 billion in sales, both a touch better than the rough consensus range cited in market coverage. Then, on May 5, Home Depot said it would report first-quarter results on May 19 at 9 a.m. (corporate.homedepot.com) ET. ### Why is $164.7 billion the number to watch? Because that is not a forecast. It is what Home Depot already did in fiscal 2025. Net sales reached $164.7 billion, up 3.2% from fiscal 2024, while diluted EPS came in at $14.23 and adjusted diluted EPS at $14.69. So if you saw "$164.7 billion revenue" framed as a 2026 projection, that’s the mix-up — it was the just-finished year’s actual sales base. (corporate.homedepot.com) ### So what is Home Depot guiding for 2026? Home Depot’s own preliminary 2026 outlook is higher than that base. Back in December, management laid out a range for total sales growth of about 2.5% to 4.5%, with comparable sales roughly flat to up 2%, and adjusted EPS growth of flat to up 4%. If you apply that sales range to the $164.7 billion 2025 base, you get something like roughly $168.8 billion to $172.1 billion for 2026. (corporate.homedepot.com) Basically, the company is not guiding for stagnation — just for a slow recovery. ### Why are analysts still split? Because the stock question and the business question are not the same thing. One camp sees a dominant retailer with scale, Pro exposure, and room to grow share even in a weak market. Another sees a stock that still looks expensive if housing turnover stays depressed and big-ticket projects remain soft. Recent market coverage captured exactly that split, including a fresh sell call tied to valuation concerns even after the quarter beat expectations. (corporate.homedepot.com) ### Why does housing matter so much? Home Depot sells a lot more than lumber and paint, but housing turnover is still a giant demand engine. When people buy and sell homes, they spend on renovations, appliances, flooring, and all the expensive category resets that follow a move. Management has been pretty direct that housing pressure and consumer uncertainty are still there, and that there is no obvious near-term catalyst for a sharp rebound. (ad-hoc-news.de) ### What’s holding up better? Repair-and-maintain work, plus the professional customer. That’s the important nuance. If homeowners are not doing dream-kitchen remodels, they still replace broken water heaters, patch roofs, fix decks, and keep rentals functional. Home Depot has spent years pushing harder into the Pro segment, and that matters because contractors tend to buy more often and in bigger baskets than casual DIY shoppers. (corporate.homedepot.com) ### What should investors listen for on May 19? Two things. First, whether first-quarter demand held steady enough to support that 2026 growth range. Second, whether management sounds more confident about bigger discretionary projects, not just maintenance spending. If Home Depot can show stable comps and resilient Pro demand without a housing rebound, the bull case gets stronger. If not, the valuation debate gets louder. (ad-hoc-news.de) ### Bottom line The real story is simple — Home Depot is not forecasting $164.7 billion for 2026. That was fiscal 2025. The live debate is whether the company can grow meaningfully above that level while housing stays stuck, and May 19 is the next real test. (corporate.homedepot.com) (ir.homedepot.com)