Thai Baht Maintains Stable Range Against Major Currencies

- The Thai Ministry of Commerce projects a drop in rice exports to 7 million tonnes in 2026, down from approximately 8 million in 2025, citing the strong baht as a major challenge to competitiveness against suppliers like India. The Fiscal Policy Office forecasts the baht will average 31.8 per U.S. dollar in 2026, continuing its appreciation. - Exporters targeting the European Union face new regulations, including a safeguard tariff-rate quota system set to take effect January 1, 2027, which could curb surges in rice imports. Additionally, from 2026, the EU is intensifying import controls, with 51% of its agri-food audits focusing on non-EU countries to ensure compliance with food safety and pesticide residue standards. - Global price competition has intensified after India, the world's largest rice exporter, lifted its export ban on non-basmati white rice and reduced export taxes on other varieties in late 2024 and early 2025. This policy shift increased global supply, contributing to a sharp decline in the prices for rice from competitors like Vietnam and Thailand. - Demand for premium Thai Hom Mali jasmine rice is growing, with exports increasing by 11% year-on-year as of late 2025, even as white rice exports fell. The global jasmine rice market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.2%, with North America and Europe showing strong growth driven by the popularity of Asian cuisine. - Access to key APAC markets is shifting, as a new US-Japan trade agreement may slash Thailand's rice quota to Japan from around 300,000 tonnes to potentially less than 100,000 tonnes. In contrast, a new Memorandum of Cooperation signed in November 2025 between Thailand and Singapore is set to expand rice trade and strengthen food security for the city-state. - To command higher margins, exporters are leveraging sustainability certifications to meet buyer demand for traceability and responsible sourcing. Standards from the Sustainable Rice Platform (SRP) are used to verify sustainable cultivation practices, helping producers access markets in Europe and North America where consumers increasingly prioritize sustainably sourced products.