DRAM, NAND prices may rise 40%-50%

TrendForce’s latest memory pricing surveys show why traders and analysts have been talking about another leg up in DRAM and NAND. On March 31, the research firm said conventional DRAM contract prices were expected to rise 58%-63% quarter over quarter in the second quarter of 2026, while NAND Flash contract prices were forecast to rise 70%-75%. The move has fed a new round of market posts in the last two days pointing to potential 40%-50% gains in near-term pricing benchmarks and to memory suppliers with the most operating leverage if those increases hold. ### Why are DRAM and NAND moving again? TrendForce said on May 6 that strong AI and server demand was driving upward revisions in memory contract prices even as parts of the spot market stayed sluggish. The firm said supplier inventories had bottomed out and that high-end applications were driving profits. On March 31, TrendForce tied the second-quarter jump to a supply shift inside the industry. (trendforce.com) DRAM suppliers, it said, were reallocating capacity toward HBM and server applications, while NAND capacity was increasingly being assigned to enterprise SSDs instead of consumer uses. ### Where does the 40%-50% figure come from if published forecasts are even higher? The 40%-50% numbers circulating this week appear to be a shorthand for the next visible move in specific products, spot benchmarks or upcoming contract resets, rather than a full-market forecast. (trendforce.com) TrendForce’s published second-quarter forecasts are higher than that shorthand: 58%-63% for conventional DRAM and 70%-75% for NAND Flash contract prices. (trendforce.com) TrendForce’s price pages also show that the market is not moving in a straight line across every segment. On May 20, its DRAM spot tracker showed DDR5 16Gb average pricing down 0.65% on the day, while DDR4 16Gb and DDR4 8Gb averages were still higher by 0.48% and 0.31%, respectively. That mix helps explain why investors and traders are focusing on contract-renewal timing and product mix, not just headline spot quotes. (trendforce.com) ### Why do SK hynix and Micron keep coming up? Micron and SK hynix are central because the current shortage is most acute in the parts of the market where server and AI demand are absorbing supply. TrendForce said on April 30 that server memory makers held “absolute pricing power” as supply shortages and low inventories pushed contract prices higher. Micron has also drawn fresh analyst attention. (trendforce.com.tw) Citi raised its price target on Micron on May 20, according to a market report carried by MSN, citing expectations that the company would raise DRAM prices. TrendForce separately said Samsung and Micron were the first to issue mobile DRAM quotes for the second quarter, while SK hynix and CXMT had only provided tentative pricing and final negotiations were expected to conclude in May. (trendforce.com) ### What does this mean for device makers and buyers? TrendForce said on May 4 that smartphone brands were finding second-quarter mobile DRAM cost pressures increasingly difficult to absorb after steep price hikes in the first half. The firm said 2026 smartphone production targets were facing downward revisions and some brands might fail to meet previously negotiated long-term agreement bit volumes. (msn.com) In NAND, TrendForce said enterprise SSD contract prices were expected to rise 48%-53% in the second quarter because AI and general-purpose server demand had created a severe supply-demand gap. The same supply squeeze has left consumer applications competing for capacity with higher-margin enterprise products. ### What should investors and suppliers watch next? May pricing negotiations are the next checkpoint. (trendforce.com) TrendForce said final mobile DRAM talks involving Samsung, Micron, SK hynix and CXMT were expected to conclude in May, and its spot-price dashboards continue to update through May 20. Any confirmation of those contract resets — especially in server DRAM, mobile DRAM and enterprise SSDs — will show whether the social-media 40%-50% shorthand is catching up to, or lagging, the published contract-price forecasts. (trendforce.com)