Fed view & recession odds
Fed projections put PCE inflation around ~2.7% for 2026 even as tariffs and other pressures linger, signaling a slow cool rather than collapse ( ). Meanwhile market bets show a 36% chance of a two‑quarter negative GDP recession on Polymarket, with commentators also flagging near‑term pain from rising gas and a $9.6B long fund equity dump ( ).
The Fed released its Summary of Economic Projections on March 18, 2026 and the SEP’s memo shows the median projected federal funds rate at 3.4% for the end of 2026. (federalreserve.gov(federalreserve.gov)) Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly warned at the March 18 press conference that energy-price shocks and tariffs have clouded the outlook, saying it is “too soon to know” how the oil shock will feed through to inflation and noting tariffs account for a sizable slice of recent core inflation. (federalreserve.gov(federalreserve.gov)) (bloomberg.com(bloomberg.com)) Polymarket’s “U.S. recession by end of 2026” contract resolves either on two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP as reported by the BEA or an NBER recession declaration, and that market has been trading in the low‑30s on implied probability in recent days. (polymarket.com(polymarket.com)) (rotogrinders.com(rotogrinders.com)) Bank of America’s March Global Fund Manager Survey of roughly 210 managers showed cash allocations jumped to about 4.3% — the largest monthly rise since March 2020 — and recorded the largest drop in investor sentiment in six months. (bloomberg.com(bloomberg.com)) (tradingview.com(tradingview.com)) Industry flow data show recent sizeable moves out of equities: the Investment Company Institute reported estimated long‑term fund outflows of $5.81 billion for the week ended March 11, 2026, while ETF industry tallies put weekly equity ETF outflows near $6.92 billion in early March. (ici.org(ici.org)) (etf.com(etf.com)) U.S. pump prices have jumped alongside global oil volatility, with AAA and multiple reporters putting the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline near $3.84–$3.88 in mid‑March 2026 — roughly 80–90 cents higher than a month earlier. (pennlive.com(pennlive.com)) (aaa.com(gasprices.aaa.com))
