Renewal shock starting to surface
Canada has entered its peak mortgage renewal cycle and early signs of payment stress are appearing—delinquencies have ticked up even as aggregate arrears remain low. That renewal-wave dynamic raises vulnerability for high‑LTV and recent‑vintage borrowers as rates stay elevated. (canadianmortgagetrends.com) (bloomberg.com)
CMHC and industry trackers put the scale of the wave at roughly 1.15 million mortgages coming up for renewal in 2026, with another ~940,000 scheduled for 2027 (just over 2 million renewals across the two years). (mpamag.com) Bank of Canada staff modelling shows about 60% of borrowers renewing in 2025–26 face higher payments, projecting an average monthly payment increase of ~10% for renewals in 2025 and ~6% in 2026, while five‑year fixed renewals could see 15–20% jumps versus December 2024 benchmarks. (bankofcanada.ca) The Canadian Bankers Association reports the national mortgage arrears rate near 0.26% as of December 2025, the highest reading in several years even though the absolute level remains low by historical standards. (cba.ca) Equifax and industry outlets flagged a sharp rise in severe mortgage delinquencies in late‑2025, with regional concentrations (notably Ontario) driving a disproportionate share of new problem accounts. (canadianmortgagetrends.com) February housing data show price declines and inventory pressure: Bloomberg reported nationwide prices slipped in February amid buyer uncertainty, while RBC flagged inventory at a six‑year high — roughly five months’ supply — keeping downward pressure on prices in Ontario and B.C. (February/March 2026 releases). (bloomberg.com) Regulatory and lender signals point to concentrated vulnerability: CMHC highlights pandemic‑era first‑time buyers and high‑LTV, recent‑vintage vintages as most at risk in the renewal wave, and industry commentary notes the Big‑Six banks’ reported arrears have outpaced Equifax averages, suggesting lender‑level pockets of stress. (cmhc-schl.gc.ca)
