Fatty‑liver projections rise
Analysts estimate metabolic dysfunction‑associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) affected about 16.1% of people globally in 2023 and could reach roughly 1.8 billion cases by 2050 ( ). Other reporting puts the 2023 figure at about 1.3 billion people, a large increase since 1990 linked to obesity and metabolic risk factors (economictimes.indiatimes.com).
Fatty liver disease tied to obesity and diabetes already affects about 1.3 billion people, and a new Lancet model projects roughly 1.8 billion cases by 2050. (thelancet.com) The disease is called metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, or MASLD. It means too much fat builds up in the liver in people with metabolic risk factors such as excess weight, type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, or high cholesterol. (niddk.nih.gov, mayoclinic.org) The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology analysis estimated global MASLD prevalence at 16.1% in 2023 and forecast a 42.0% rise in total cases by 2050. The paper said population growth was the main driver, with obesity and high blood sugar also pushing rates higher. (thelancet.com, ajmc.com) The study found the heaviest burden in 2023 in North Africa and the Middle East, where age-standardized prevalence reached about 21,000 cases per 100,000 people. Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East are projected to post the largest absolute increases by 2050. (thelancet.com, ajmc.com) Most people with MASLD have few or no symptoms, which leaves many cases undiagnosed until scarring or inflammation appears. In its more severe form, called metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, or MASH, the disease can progress to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and liver failure. (niddk.nih.gov, liverfoundation.org) The liver is only part of the risk. Reviews in Gut and Clinical and Molecular Hepatology say cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death in people with MASLD, and the condition is also linked to chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, and some cancers. (gut.bmj.com, pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) The name MASLD is new even if the disease is not. International liver societies adopted the term in 2023 to replace nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, or NAFLD, and one Gut review said about 99% of people who met the old definition also meet the new one. (gut.bmj.com) Treatment is still centered on weight loss, diet, exercise, and control of diabetes and cholesterol. In March 2024, the Food and Drug Administration approved resmetirom, sold as Rezdiffra, as the first drug for adults with noncirrhotic MASH and moderate to advanced liver scarring, to be used with diet and exercise. (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov, fda.gov) The new forecast does not say 1.8 billion people will become newly sick by 2050. It says that, without broader prevention and metabolic care, fatty liver linked to modern diets, inactivity, and diabetes will keep spreading as the world’s population grows. (thelancet.com, ajmc.com)
