Central banks poised to hold rates
Coverage this week indicates the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady amid surging energy prices and Middle East tensions—policymakers are pausing to reassess inflation risks reported. The backdrop is shifting asset‑allocation talk toward equities with pricing power and away from long‑duration government bonds.
Federal Reserve markets price a near‑100% probability that the FOMC will stay on hold at its March 17–18 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch gauge ([fedwatch.com)]. Brent crude rallied above $100 and was trading around $105.89 on March 16, reflecting supply fears after Gulf disruptions, while the IEA estimated at least a 10 million barrels‑per‑day cut to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and related outages ([markets.ft.com)]. A Reuters poll found economists now expect the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at about 3.75% on March 19 and delay cuts into April or June, and a separate Reuters poll shows the Bank of Japan likely to keep its policy rate at 0.75% next week but lift it to roughly 1.00% by end‑June. ([money.usnews.com)] Benchmark yields have moved higher: the U.S. 10‑year Treasury was near 4.27% in mid‑March (H.15 data) and the UK 10‑year gilt hovered around 4.72% on March 16, coinciding with net redemptions from long‑duration bond vehicles while ultra‑short and short‑duration funds attracted inflows. ([fred.stlouisfed.org)] Asset managers are pivoting toward stocks with predictable margin power: the Invesco Bloomberg Pricing Power ETF (POWA) has about $190–195m in assets under management and Bloomberg research highlights pricing‑power strategies outperforming in inflationary episodes. ([marketbeat.com)] Market pricing has pushed expected timing of Fed cuts later into 2026, with some traders removing a September cut from the calendar and major banks revising down the number of cuts after the oil shock, keeping the policy‑pause narrative dominant for now. ([cnbc.com)]
