Pakistan wheat prices up 25%

Pakistan’s wheat market did not move to a pure free-market model in one step, and the record does not support every claim in the social-media thread. Pakistan’s federal government approved a wheat policy on October 20, 2025 that kept a procurement price of Rs3,500 per 40 kilograms and set a target for federal and provincial authorities to build about 6.2 million tonnes of strategic reserves, according to Pakistan’s Ministry of Information and Broadcasting. At the same time, USDA reports said Islamabad was moving toward a more liberalized market, with a larger role for private trade and storage and less direct state intervention. The 25% price-rise claim also needs qualification. USDA’s Islamabad office said in an April 3, 2026 Grain and Feed Annual that Pakistan’s wheat market had been volatile since the previous harvest and that domestic wheat prices in March 2026 were 40% higher than a year earlier, at about $340 per ton. Pakistan’s Agricultural Marketing Information Service, or AMIS, showed wholesale wheat quotations on May 17, 2026 at 8,188 rupees per 100 kilograms in Vehari, 8,625 rupees in Rahim Yar Khan and 11,750 rupees in Rawalpindi, though those location-specific prices are not a direct official measure of a nationwide move since end-2025. (moib.gov.pk) ### Did Pakistan really remove support prices and state procurement under IMF rules? October 20, 2025 is the clearest official marker, and it shows the government still set a procurement benchmark rather than scrapping it outright. Pakistan’s information ministry said the Wheat Policy 2025-26 approved by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif fixed procurement at Rs3,500 per maund, or 40 kilograms, and called for weekly monitoring by a national wheat committee. April 8, 2025 is the clearest external marker of the broader direction, and it points the other way over time. (apps.fas.usda.gov) USDA’s Islamabad office said the government was “moving forward” with a strategy to liberalize the wheat market by eliminating guaranteed support prices, halting procurement and distribution, and shifting the system toward private-sector participation. A later USDA report dated April 3, 2026 said the revised policy for the 2026/27 crop involved the private sector to minimize direct government intervention and that the private sector would hold the bulk of stocks. (moib.gov.pk) ### What do the verified price numbers actually show? March 2026 is the best-documented reference point in the public record reviewed here. USDA said domestic wheat prices were around $340 per ton in mid-March 2026 and 40% higher than a year earlier, while flour prices were about $412 per ton. May 17, 2026 AMIS data show that wholesale prices varied sharply by market. (apps.fas.usda.gov) The government-linked AMIS database listed wheat at 6,500 rupees per 100 kilograms in Toba Tek Singh, 8,188 rupees in Vehari, 8,625 rupees in Rahim Yar Khan and 11,750 rupees in Rawalpindi. Those figures show firm prices, but they do not by themselves verify a nationwide 25% increase from December 31, 2025. ### How much of this is tied to drought in Texas and global wheat markets? (apps.fas.usda.gov) May 13, 2026 U.S. grain data show Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures settling at 714 cents a bushel for the nearby contract, with later contracts above that level. USDA market data for Texas also showed South Plains dealer bids for hard red winter wheat at about $5.16 per bushel on May 13. Recent U.S. drought reporting supports the idea that Southern Plains weather has tightened wheat sentiment. (amis.pk) Drought.gov says USDA updates crop drought exposure weekly, and farm trade reporting in May said drought in the Southern Plains had lifted wheat prices back above $7 a bushel. But the sources reviewed here do not show an official Pakistani or IMF statement naming Texas South Plains drought as the major driver of Pakistan’s domestic wheat rise on May 16. That link is plausible as a market inference, not a verified official explanation. (ams.usda.gov) ### Are prices still below Pakistani farmers’ production costs? The public sources reviewed here do not provide a verified official nationwide production-cost series for May 2026 that would let this be stated as fact. Pakistan’s October 2025 policy said Rs3,500 per 40 kilograms was intended to give farmers a fair price, while USDA described low prices in 2025 as one reason planted area fell. April 3, 2026 USDA reporting said wheat output in 2026/27 was forecast at 29.6 million tons, imports at 1.4 million tons and ending stocks at about 2.2 million tons, with private firms expected to hold most stocks under the revised policy. (drought.gov) Pakistan’s AMIS database continues to publish wholesale market quotations, and those daily readings are the clearest next checkpoint for whether the spring rally holds into the post-harvest period. (apps.fas.usda.gov) (moib.gov.pk)