Industrial lease cliff data
U.S. industrial vacancy sits near 7.5% with rent growth cooling to 1.3% YoY, and roughly 37% of leases roll by 2027 — creating a large repricing window; small‑bay vacancy is ~5% while big‑box tops >10% and the supply pipeline is at a 10‑year low. That mix points to bifurcated opportunities by bay size and lease timing. (x.com)
CompStak’s 2025 biannual analysis finds more than 31% of industrial leases across major U.S. markets are slated to expire by the end of 2027, with most in‑place rents running roughly 33–75% below current market starting rates. ( compstak.com ) The same CompStak study shows free‑rent concessions averaged about 4.4% of lease term for bulk deals in Q1 2025, and bulk leases carry average terms roughly 16 months longer than small‑bay contracts—concentrating repricing exposure in larger footprints. ( compstak.com ) Plante Moran reports roughly 294 million square feet of industrial space under construction and projects annual supply additions will drop to a 10‑year low by the end of 2026 as construction starts contract. ( plantemoran.com ) Cushman & Wakefield’s MarketBeat shows small‑bay product finished Q4 2025 with vacancy at about 4.8%, while larger buildings (300k+ SF) peaked at 10.6% midyear before tightening to 9.8% by year‑end 2025. ( cushmanwakefield.com ) CBRE’s Q4 2025 Inland Empire figures record IE East vacancy at 8.5% and IE West at 6.0% after approximately 3.6 million square feet of vacant deliveries in Fontana and Ontario during the quarter. ( cbre.com ) Colliers’ Q4 2025 Inland Empire report notes about 50 million square feet sitting vacant region‑wide, 4.3 million square feet of new supply in the quarter, and market availability near 11.7% for the year. ( colliers.com ) CBRE’s national figures show industrial leasing activity rose about 12% in 2025, with big‑box demand noticeably supported by 3PLs, manufacturing and food & beverage occupiers—a dynamic that concentrates near‑term leasing competition on larger footprints. ( cbre.com cushmanwakefield.com ) CompStak’s rent index indicates effective industrial rents are about 4.7% below their late‑2023 peak, underscoring why a large cohort of upcoming expirations presents both upside for landlords and churn risk where tenants secure concessions. ( compstak.com )
