Trade talks getting transactional
Recent reporting shows U.S.-China trade relations are operating from a lower baseline: a 2025 escalation pushed bilateral tariffs above 100% and a subsequent partial rollback left U.S. duties on Chinese goods near 30% and Chinese tariffs on U.S. exports around 10%. At the same time, the EU Chamber has urged Brussels not to be passive in the U.S.-China dispute and India is sending a delegation to Washington next week for trade talks amid ongoing USTR Section 301 investigations (Fox News) (foxnews.com) (South China Morning Post) (scmp.com) (Times of India) (timesofindia.indiatimes.com).
U.S.-China trade is no longer centered on one grand bargain; it is being managed through narrower, rolling deals while tariffs stay far above pre-2025 levels. (congress.gov) Congressional Research Service data says average two-way tariff rates peaked in mid-April 2025 at 164% on U.S. imports from China and 146% on Chinese imports from the United States. By February 20, 2026, those averages were still about 34% for the United States and 31% for China. (congress.gov) A May 12, 2025 White House fact sheet and a May 21, 2025 Federal Register notice said Washington and Beijing cut their latest reciprocal tariffs to 10% for 90 days, leaving a 30% U.S. baseline on many Chinese goods and a 10% Chinese tariff on U.S. goods during the pause. (whitehouse.gov) (federalregister.gov) That left both governments negotiating from a much higher floor than before the 2025 tariff spiral. The Congressional Research Service said U.S. and Chinese officials kept talking through 2025, but had not reached a broader tariff deal by February 2026. (congress.gov) Europe is now trying to avoid getting squeezed by those talks. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said on April 14 that Brussels should not be a “passive recipient” of U.S.-China negotiations after European companies were hit by China’s rare earth export controls. (scmp.com) The chamber’s president, Jens Eskelund, said European firms had become “collateral damage” in disputes they did not start. The same report said Beijing paused its October rare earth controls for one year after a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, but companies still lack clarity before the November deadline. (scmp.com) India is taking a different route and heading back to Washington. The Times of India reported on April 15 that an Indian delegation will travel next week after the two sides agreed in February on a framework for the first phase of a bilateral trade pact that would cut U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18%. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) Those talks are unfolding while the Office of the United States Trade Representative opens new Section 301 cases. On March 11, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer launched investigations into structural excess capacity in 16 economies, including China, the European Union, and India. (ustr.gov) Section 301 is the U.S. trade law used to investigate foreign practices that Washington says burden American commerce. A Congressional Research Service explainer says the law gives the United States Trade Representative broad authority to investigate and potentially respond to practices judged unreasonable or discriminatory. (congress.gov) The result is a trade map built less on stable rules than on country-by-country bargaining. China is still negotiating from tariff levels above 30%, Europe is asking not to be sidelined, and India is trying to lock in better terms before the next U.S. trade move lands. (congress.gov) (scmp.com) (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
