Business Insider: beef prices rising

Business Insider reported on May 20 that U.S. beef prices are rising as a cattle shortage collides with strong consumer demand for protein. USDA’s latest outlook, updated May 19, said 2026 cattle prices were raised from the prior month and that next year’s prices are projected to reach new highs as supplies remain limited. April 2026 ground beef averaged $6.899 a pound in U.S. cities, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data published through the St. Louis Fed. That price point captures the consumer end of a supply squeeze that has been building for years across the cattle cycle. ### How small is the U.S. cattle herd right now? The U.S. cattle inventory stood at 86.2 million head on Jan. 1, 2026, down about 300,000 from a year earlier and the lowest level in 75 years, the American Farm Bureau Federation said in an analysis of USDA data. (ers.usda.gov) Beef cows that have calved totaled 27.6 million, down 1% from 2025 and the lowest since 1961. (fred.stlouisfed.org) University of Tennessee agricultural economist Andrew Griffith wrote in March that total cattle and calves inventory fell to 86.16 million head, while the 2025 calf crop dropped 1.6% from the prior year to 32.90 million head. He said that decline was roughly equal to removing a full week of finished cattle slaughter from the market. (fb.org) ### Why hasn’t the herd bounced back yet? Farm Bureau said February 10 that cattle inventory will likely not expand until at least 2028. The group said fewer beef cows and a declining calf crop mean the 2026 calf crop is likely to keep trending lower, even if producers retain more heifers for breeding. Griffith said producers held back 4.71 million heifers for beef-cow replacement in 2026, up 0.9% from 2025, but he also said there were about 260,000 fewer heifers produced in 2025 than in 2024. (utbeef.tennessee.edu) That leaves ranchers trying to rebuild from a smaller base. ### If supply is tight, what is demand doing? The Meat Institute and FMI said on March 2 that U.S. meat department sales reached a record $112 billion in 2025, with pound sales up 2%. (fb.org) Their Power of Meat 2026 report said beef generated 70% of dollar gains and 56% of pound growth. (utbeef.tennessee.edu) More than 98% of U.S. households purchase meat, according to the same report, and 45% of shoppers said they were actively trying to prepare more meals containing meat or poultry. Grocery Dive reported that fresh beef volumes rose by more than 4% in 2025 and sales reached $45 billion. (meatinstitute.org) ### What are federal forecasters saying about prices next? USDA’s Economic Research Service said on May 19 that 2026 beef production was lowered by 243 million pounds from the prior month to 25.547 billion pounds, reflecting a slower expected cattle slaughter pace. The agency said 2027 production is forecast to decline another 0.9% to 25.310 billion pounds. (meatinstitute.org) The same USDA outlook said 2026 cattle prices were raised on recent price data and that 2027 prices are projected to reach new highs because supplies remain limited. Beef imports are forecast to rise in 2026 before declining 1.8% in 2027. ### When will there be another hard read on consumer prices? The Bureau of Labor Statistics data series for average U.S. ground-beef prices shows the next release date as June 10, 2026. (ers.usda.gov) USDA’s cattle-and-beef outlook page was last updated on May 19, and it remains the federal government’s latest published forecast for production and cattle prices. (fred.stlouisfed.org)