Southeast Asia balances US and China

Southeast Asia is back in its least comfortable position — needing America for security, needing China for growth, and suddenly needing cheap energy from anywhere. That tension sharpened on May 8, when ASEAN leaders gathered in Cebu under a cloud of oil shock, shipping disruption, and renewed great-power pressure. The region’s old habit was hedging. Keep Washington close, keep Beijing closer on trade, and avoid choosing. But that balancing act is getting more expensive. (aseanews.net) ### Why is this flaring now? The immediate trigger is the Iran war and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Southeast Asia is far from the Gulf, but it is heavily exposed to imported fuel, and ASEAN officials are now openly talking about energy and food security in the same breath. In Cebu, Philippine Foreign Mi(aseanews.net)ability: ASEAN imports about 66% of its crude oil. (aseanews.net) ### Why does that become a U.S.-China story? Because the region’s dependencies run in opposite directions. The U.S. is still the main outside security partner for countries worried about the South China Sea, especially the Philippines. But China remains central to supply chains, infrastructure, industrial investment, a(aseanews.net)s, they often need Beijing even more. (channelnewsasia.com) ### What’s the clearest example? The Philippines. Under Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Manila deepened defense ties with Washington and expanded access for U.S. forces, while confrontations with China at sea became sharper. At the same time, Manila is now signaling a limited thaw with Beijing — not because the disputes are solved, but because (channelnewsasia.com)rdening on defense while softening its tone. (channelnewsasia.com) ### Is the rest of ASEAN doing the same thing? Not in the same way, but the pattern rhymes. Vietnam wants U.S. markets and strategic backing, yet it cannot afford to rupture ties with China next door. Indonesia still sells itself as non-aligned, while taking Chinese capital in some sectors and courting Western technology and finance i(channelnewsasia.com)on is not picking one camp. It is splitting functions between them. (eastasiaforum.org) ### What are tariffs doing to this? They are scrambling the economics of hedging. New York Fed analysis this week showed U.S. trade deficits with China fell while the U.S. deficit with ASEAN rose, with Vietnam the biggest single driver. China’s surplus with ASEAN also increased. In plain English — a lot of U.S.-China trade is being rerouted through Southeast Asia. T(eastasiaforum.org)or tariff probes and anti-circumvention pressure. (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org) ### Has public sentiment shifted too? A bit — and that matters because elites notice it. The ISEAS State of Southeast Asia 2026 survey found that if respondents were forced to choose, 52% would pick China and 48% the U.S. That is not a landslide. It is basically a region saying, “we still want both.” But it also shows that (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org)ewer lectures. (channelnewsasia.com) ### So what is ASEAN actually trying to do? Buy room to maneuver. The Cebu summit agenda shows the method clearly — talk unity, avoid choosing, coordinate on energy and food, and keep external powers from turning every regional problem into a loyalty test. That does not mean neutrality in the moral sense. It means preserving options. For small and mid-sized states sitting between two giants, optionality is the strategy. (aseanews.net) ### Bottom line? Southeast Asia is not drifting cleanly toward China or snapping back to the U.S. It is doing something more awkward and more realistic. It is tightening security links with Washington where it feels threatened, deepening economic ties with China where it feels exposed, and praying the gap between those two choices stays manageable. The catch is that wars, tariffs, and shipping shocks are making that gap wider by the month. (channelnewsasia.com)