Panama Canal rebounds — with risk

The Panama Canal is moving close to normal speed again, with traffic back up to about 38 ships a day after drought rules had cut that to as few as 24 in late 2023. In the first half of fiscal year 2026, it logged 6,284 high-draft transits, which is the kind of number shippers watch because it means bigger vessels are getting through again. (worldports.org) (laestrella.com.pa) That rebound follows a brutal swing in the other direction. During fiscal year 2024, total annual transits fell to 11,290 from a 2010 to 2023 average of 13,759 after low water forced the canal to ration daily slots and cut draft below 44 feet. (usni.org) (worldports.org) Draft is just the depth of water a ship needs to float safely, so a lower draft limit works like telling every truck on a highway to unload part of its cargo before crossing a bridge. On the Panama Canal’s largest Neopanamax route, the normal draft is 50 feet, and that difference can decide whether a ship sails full or leaves containers behind. (worldports.org) (usni.org) The canal has recovered because rain came back. A shift to La Niña and wetter conditions through 2025 pushed Gatun Lake back near maximum capacity, restoring roughly 36 daily transits and the full 50-foot draft for Neopanamax vessels. (worldports.org) Money followed the water. The Panama Canal Authority said fiscal year 2025 revenue reached about $5.7 billion, up from $4.986 billion in fiscal year 2024, and outside reporting says fiscal year 2026 is now running ahead of earlier expectations as traffic improves. (pancanal.com) (maritimenews.com) This matters far beyond Panama because the canal handles about 5 percent of global maritime trade and connects 1,920 ports in 170 countries through 180 maritime routes. When daily slots disappear there, cargo does not vanish; it gets delayed, rerouted, or repriced. (usni.org) (pancanal.com) Now the risk is swinging back the other way. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects El Niño to emerge by mid-2026 and persist through the end of 2026, and El Niño usually brings reduced rainfall to Central America, which feeds the canal’s lock system through Gatun Lake. (worldports.org) That makes the canal’s recovery feel sturdy and fragile at the same time. Even a moderate El Niño could mean fewer transit slots, lower draft limits, and higher prices for ships bidding for priority passage, while a very strong El Niño is currently assigned roughly 25 percent odds by the same outlook cited in shipping coverage. (worldports.org) Panama is already trying to buy itself margin. Canal planners are advancing a Rio Indio reservoir project to add freshwater for lock operations and drinking water, because the same lake system that lifts ships also serves more than half of Panama’s population. (usni.org) So the canal is no longer in emergency mode, but it is still living reservoir to reservoir. The headline number is recovery; the underlying number is rainfall. (laestrella.com.pa) (worldports.org)