Energy shock deepens
Russia will ban gasoline exports from April 1, compounding supply worries as the Israel/US–Iran conflict has already disrupted oil and gas flows from the Middle East and pushed prices higher — analysts warn markets may be underestimating the economic shock. Restoration of regular energy supplies could take months, raising inflation and growth risks for advanced and developing economies. (businesstoday.in) (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) (firstonline.info)
State outlets say the measure was framed to run through July 31, according to government and TASS reporting. (Xinhua - ) Industry data and reporting put Russia’s gasoline exports at roughly 100,000–170,000 barrels per day in recent years, with last‑year shipments cited around 117,000 b/d. (BusinessToday.in - ) Recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian refinery facilities have knocked out two plants that Bloomberg estimates account for just under 10% of Russia’s refinery runs, compounding constraints on product flows. (Bloomberg - ) The IEA says at least 40 Middle East energy assets have been “severely or very severely damaged,” and its March analysis estimated global oil supply fell by about 8 million barrels per day in March amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. (IEA Oil Market Report - ) Brent crude jumped into the low‑$110s late last week and has risen roughly 45% over the past month, while benchmark gasoline and heating‑oil contracts have also surged, reflecting a large risk premium. (TradingEconomics - ) Policy forecasters have already moved: the OECD cut its near‑term outlook and now projects global growth of 2.9% for 2026 while warning headline inflation in G20 economies will be higher than previously expected. (OECD - ) Prominent economists and central bankers have signalled markets may be underpricing the shock — University of Chicago’s Guido Lorenzoni said markets “are too optimistic” on growth and the energy shock, and ECB officials have echoed concerns about complacency. (Firstonline interview / ANSA - )
