Kevin Warsh named Fed chair

Kevin Warsh is set to become Federal Reserve chair after the U.S. Senate confirmed him on May 13 and Jerome Powell’s four-year term as chair expired on May 15. The Federal Reserve said last week that Powell would serve as chair pro tempore until Warsh is sworn in, a temporary step the Board said was consistent with past transitions. President Donald Trump had nominated Warsh in January to lead the central bank and to serve a 14-year term on the Board of Governors. The handoff comes with investors focused on both the leadership change and the policy record Warsh inherits. ### When does Warsh actually take over? May 15 is the key date for Powell’s chair term, not May 20. In a press release that day, the Federal Reserve said Powell’s term as chair had concluded and that he would serve as chair pro tempore until Warsh is sworn in as the new chair. The Board did not say in that statement that Warsh had already been sworn in. (bloomberg.com) Bloomberg reported on May 15 that Warsh had been confirmed by the Senate earlier that week but had not yet officially taken the reins because the swearing-in was still pending. That means any account saying he had already replaced Powell on May 20 was ahead of the formal step described by the Fed. (federalreserve.gov) ### What has been officially announced so far? The White House said on January 30 that Trump had announced Warsh’s nomination to serve as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. A later White House nominations notice said Warsh was also nominated to a 14-year term as a member of the Board beginning February 1, 2026, alongside a four-year term as chair. (bloomberg.com) The Senate Banking Committee’s Republican leadership backed the nomination publicly before the vote, and Bloomberg reported the full Senate confirmed Warsh by a 54-45 vote on May 13. Senate Democratic leaders had argued publicly for an independent Fed after Trump named Warsh, underscoring the political scrutiny around the transition. (whitehouse.gov) ### What policy backdrop is he walking into? The Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged on April 29. The Fed said then that economic activity had been expanding at a solid pace, unemployment had changed little in recent months, and inflation remained elevated, partly because of higher global energy prices. The implementation note said the Board voted unanimously to keep the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, consistent with a federal funds target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. (banking.senate.gov) Federal Reserve materials show the minutes from that April 28-29 meeting were scheduled for release on May 20. Bloomberg reported after the decision that four officials dissented, the most since 1992, not three as some social-media posts said. ### What about the claims on rate-cut odds? The 38.2% figure cited in social posts appears to come from market commentary and prediction-market discussion, not from any Federal Reserve release. (federalreserve.gov) The official Fed materials available on May 20 do not publish such odds, and the sources reviewed here do not provide an authoritative primary-source basis for that number. (federalreserve.gov) April 29 remains the latest official policy decision in the Fed materials reviewed. The next concrete document in this sequence is the release of the April meeting minutes on May 20, followed by Warsh’s swearing-in, which the Fed said was still pending as of May 15. (federalreserve.gov)