NOAA to use uncrewed aircraft in models

NOAA said on May 19 that it will, for the first time, feed data from a small uncrewed aircraft system into its operational hurricane forecast model for the 2026 Atlantic season. The agency’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory said the observations will be incorporated into the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, or HAFS, its main model for hurricane track and intensity guidance. NOAA said the added stream will be used alongside the satellite, aircraft and other observations already going into storm forecasts. ### What exactly is changing this season? NOAA said the new element is data from a small uncrewed aircraft system, or sUAS, called the Black Swift S0. The agency said that, during the 2026 hurricane season, those observations will be integrated into HAFS in near real time rather than used only in research after the fact. WHYY reported on May 23 that NOAA would use uncrewed aircraft system data in its intensity modeling for the first time this season. (aoml.noaa.gov) NOAA’s own research post said the move applies to hurricane intensity forecasts, which are typically harder to improve than track forecasts because storm structure can change rapidly over water. ### What kind of aircraft is NOAA talking about? (aoml.noaa.gov) NOAA’s research office said the aircraft is a 2.75-pound Black Swift uncrewed plane with a 54.6-inch wingspan. The agency said the platform is designed to gather measurements from inside hurricanes, including parts of storms that are difficult or inefficient to sample continuously with crewed aircraft alone. (whyy.org) NOAA has used uncrewed systems in hurricane research before. A separate NOAA operations page said the agency works with industry and academic partners to deploy uncrewed systems because they can reach storm areas crewed platforms cannot access as easily. The 2026 change is that one of those data streams now moves into the operational forecast model. (research.noaa.gov) ### Why does NOAA think the data will help? Scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory found that assimilating the sUAS data improved hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 10%, NOAA said. The agency tied that result specifically to tests in HAFS, which it described as its next-generation operational hurricane model. (omao.noaa.gov) NOAA did not say the drone data replaces hurricane hunter aircraft or satellites. Instead, the agency said the new observations will be folded into the broader mix of data used to initialize and update forecasts. That matters because intensity forecasts depend heavily on what forecasters know about a storm’s inner structure and the air and ocean immediately around it. (aoml.noaa.gov) ### Where in a storm can these drones collect data? NOAA said the Black Swift system gathers data from inside hurricanes, and outside reporting described the aircraft as operating near the ocean surface. That part of the storm is important because exchanges of heat, moisture and momentum between the ocean and atmosphere help determine whether a cyclone strengthens or weakens. (research.noaa.gov) NOAA’s broader hurricane research program says the 2026 field season supports projects spanning storm genesis, intensification and end stage, with work tied to the National Hurricane Center and Environmental Modeling Center. The drone integration fits into that larger effort to turn field observations into operational forecast guidance. ### When will people start seeing this in forecasts? (research.noaa.gov) The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, according to NOAA’s 2026 seasonal outlook. NOAA said the uncrewed-aircraft data will be used in the 2026 season, meaning the change starts with this summer’s Atlantic forecasts. NOAA on May 21 forecast a below-average 2026 Atlantic season, with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. (aoml.noaa.gov) Even with that outlook, the agency said a single storm can still become dangerous, and the new model input will be part of the forecast system available to forecasters as storms develop. (abcnews.com)