Republicans Face Midterm Losses

- The president's party has lost seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 18 of the 20 midterm elections held since 1946. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 26 House seats and four Senate seats in a midterm election. - Republicans currently hold a narrow 220-215 majority in the House of Representatives and a 53-47 majority in the Senate (with two independents caucusing with Democrats). Democrats need to flip a net of just three seats to gain control of the House. - The Supreme Court's 6-3 decision ruled that the President could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs. The ruling invalidated tariffs that had raised an estimated $160 billion. - In response to the Supreme Court's decision, former President Trump immediately utilized Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose new 10% tariffs, which he raised to 15% the next day. This authority allows for tariffs to be in place for 150 days unless extended by Congress. - In the Senate, Republicans will be defending 22 of the 33 seats up for regular election. Key races include Republican-held seats in Maine and North Carolina, and Democratic-held seats in Georgia and Michigan. - There are 14 Democratic-held House districts that Donald Trump won in 2024, and nine Republican-held districts that Kamala Harris won, marking them as key battlegrounds. As of January 2026, 49 House members (21 Democrats and 28 Republicans) had announced they would not seek re-election. - Economists estimated that the now-invalidated IEEPA tariffs amounted to an average tax increase of $1,000 per U.S. household in 2025. The remaining tariffs under different authorities are estimated to cost households between $400 and $600 in 2026. - Historically, the president's job approval rating is a strong indicator of midterm election outcomes. When a president's approval is below 50% a year before the midterms, their party has consistently lost House seats in the modern era.