Europe braces for flight cancellations

Europe’s summer flight schedules are under pressure as airlines and regulators warn that jet-fuel shortages could force cancellations within weeks. (cnbc.com) (ap.org) The warning hardened on April 23, when International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told CNBC that Europe may struggle to meet summer demand if it cannot secure more imports from the United States and Nigeria. (cnbc.com) Birol said August jet-fuel demand is typically about 40% higher than in March, just as supplies from Middle East refineries have fallen sharply after the Strait of Hormuz closure. (cnbc.com) He had already told The Associated Press on April 16 that Europe had “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left if blocked supplies did not resume. (ap.org) The industry’s main trade group then put a date on the risk. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, said Europe could start seeing cancellations by the end of May for lack of jet fuel. (aircargonews.net) (euronews.com) Airports have asked Brussels for a coordinated response. Airports Council International Europe warned that some airports could start running out of jet fuel within three weeks unless traffic through Hormuz resumes in a significant and stable way. (aircargonews.net) (cruiseindustrynews.com) The European Union Aviation Safety Agency is preparing recommendations that would allow Jet A to be used in place of the standard European Jet A-1 if shortages worsen. (bernama.com) Some airlines have already started trimming schedules. Scandinavian carrier SAS said in March that it would cancel at least 1,000 flights in April after jet-fuel prices doubled in 10 days, and KLM has adjusted schedules on some European routes because higher kerosene costs made them uneconomic. (euronews.com) (aircargonews.net) The cost shock is large even before physical shortages bite. CNBC reported that jet-fuel prices were up 103% by the end of March from the month before, citing International Air Transport Association data. (cnbc.com) Europe is more exposed than the United States because it imports more jet fuel, and Birol said about 75% of Europe’s supply had been coming from Middle East refineries whose output is now “almost zero.” (cnbc.com) For travelers, the immediate effect is less certainty: fewer frequencies on marginal routes, higher fares as fuel surcharges spread, and more last-minute schedule changes as airlines try to stretch available supply. (euronews.com) (cnbc.com) Unless Europe can pull in enough replacement fuel before peak August demand, the summer timetable now depends as much on tanker arrivals as on passenger bookings. (cnbc.com) (aircargonews.net)