Inside Higher Ed: 61% met fall 2026 goals

Inside Higher Ed reported on August 5 that 61% of colleges said they had met or expected to meet their fall 2026 enrollment goals, citing a July survey of 134 higher education enrollment leaders conducted by Niche. The same survey found a sharper squeeze at smaller institutions, where only half of colleges with fewer than 2,000 students expected to hit target. The topline suggested relative stability late in the cycle, but the underlying data pointed to uneven conditions by size and selectivity. Niche published its fuller findings on August 4 in its State of Higher Education Pulse Survey for 2026. ### Why is the 61% figure getting attention? The 61% figure matters because it is the headline measure of how many institutions believe their incoming class is on track as the fall semester approaches. Inside Higher Ed said the result came from Niche’s July survey and described it as a snapshot of where enrollment stands ahead of the new academic year. (insidehighered.com) Niche said the same 61% reading had appeared earlier in the cycle for a different question. In February, 61% of enrollment leaders told Niche they were ahead of pace to fill their class, and five months later 61% again said they expected to meet or beat target. ### Where are colleges still under the most pressure? (insidehighered.com) Colleges with fewer than 2,000 students were in the weakest position in the survey. Inside Higher Ed reported that only 50% of those smaller institutions expected to meet their fall 2026 enrollment goals, compared with 61% overall. (niche.com) Allison Shrivastava, an economist at Niche, told Inside Higher Ed that small institutions “have far less wiggle room, so every seat counts.” Niche’s own write-up said larger institutions were effectively holding up the overall average, with the smallest schools trailing campuses in larger size bands. (insidehighered.com) ### What are schools using to secure their class? Campus visits ranked as the most important enrollment lever across the survey, according to Inside Higher Ed. Faster, clearer financial aid packages and parent engagement followed behind. At colleges with fewer than 2,000 students, 92% of respondents listed campus visits as a top lever for securing students. (insidehighered.com) Niche said dependence on in-person engagement also carried risk. Inside Higher Ed quoted the report as saying one small school identified a drop in campus visits as its biggest unsolved problem, while others linked weak event engagement to summer melt. (insidehighered.com) ### How much is discounting showing up in the data? Discounting appeared more common among smaller colleges, and Niche’s broader analysis suggested it was not a guaranteed fix. Niche said schools that named increased discounting as a top lever hit their target less than half the time, at 48%, compared with 67% for schools that did not cite discounting that way. (insidehighered.com) The broader higher-education backdrop already showed heavy use of institutional aid. Inside Higher Ed reported in June 2025 that the average tuition discount rate at private nonprofit colleges reached 56.3% for first-time, full-time undergraduates in the 2024-25 academic year, according to a NACUBO-commissioned study. (niche.com) ### Is this happening in a shrinking market? National enrollment data have been mixed rather than uniformly negative. Inside Higher Ed reported in May 2025 that total higher-education enrollment reached 18.4 million in spring 2025, up 3.2% year over year, while undergraduate enrollment rose 3.5% but remained 2.4% below 2020 levels. (insidehighered.com) Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, said at the time that the sector was “not yet seeing” the declines in high school graduates that had long been projected. That helps explain why the current story is less about a single national collapse than about which institutions can still convert interest into enrolled students. (insidehighered.com) ### What should readers watch next? Niche’s August 4 report offers the next set of specifics, including breakouts by size, region and selectivity, and additional detail on late applications, waitlists and marketing budgets. Inside Higher Ed’s August 5 story said the survey was designed as a late-summer update on where colleges stand before the fall term begins. (insidehighered.com 1) (insidehighered.com 2)