Southeast Asia Alarmed by Iran War
Southeast Asia is expressing alarm over the Iran war outbreak, urging restraint and diplomacy amid disrupted US-Iran talks [https://x.com/Diplomat_APAC/status/2030709136640389559]. Diplomatic efforts are underway for de-escalation in the Middle East, with calls to condemn attacks and protect civilians [https://x.com/GBAFReview/status/2031138637836878004]. What specific diplomatic efforts are being pursued?
Following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ASEAN foreign ministers released a joint statement on March 4, calling for an immediate ceasefire. The ministers urged all parties to respect international law and the UN Charter, also emphasizing the protection of civilians during conflict. They confirmed they would collaborate to provide emergency aid to Southeast Asian nationals in the Middle East if necessary. Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto offered to mediate talks between the U.S. and Iran. The Iranian ambassador in Jakarta responded diplomatically but questioned the impact of such a gesture, urging Indonesia to condemn the U.S. and Israel. Malaysia and Brunei have strongly condemned the U.S.-Israeli attacks, urging maximum restraint and diplomatic resolutions. Thailand and the Philippines are prioritizing the safety and potential evacuation of their citizens from the region. Philippine officials estimate over 2.2 million Filipinos reside in the Middle East. A Filipina caregiver in Israel was killed in an Iranian missile strike on March 1. The conflict is disrupting energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil and gas prices to surge. Thailand has already suspended crude oil and petroleum product exports to safeguard its reserves. Indonesia, with state-owned tankers stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, plans to increase oil imports from the U.S.. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, with almost 90% of its exported volumes bound for Asia. Disruptions have caused oil prices to surge, briefly hitting nearly $120 a barrel before settling below $90 after comments from former U.S. President Trump. Experts note Asian economies are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on Middle Eastern imports. Beyond energy, financial markets in Southeast Asia are sensitive to global uncertainty caused by the conflict. Higher global interest rates and investor risk aversion could trigger capital flight from emerging economies in the region. The cost of shipping goods by air from Asia to Europe has increased by 45% since the war began. Some analysts suggest the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran may breach the UN Charter, impacting Southeast Asian perceptions of the U.S. and its regional relations. The conflict could divert U.S. military attention from the Indo-Pacific, affecting the balance of power in the South China Sea.
