Cocoa prices fall sharply

Cocoa prices have fallen sharply from their 2024 peak, easing a cost shock that drove up chocolate prices and squeezed candy makers. (ice.com) New York cocoa futures were around $3,172 a tonne on April 14, down from a record near $12,906 in December 2024, while Trading Economics said cocoa was still about 55% lower than a year earlier on April 15. (ice.com) (tradingeconomics.com) The drop has tracked better supply and weaker demand. Ivory Coast port arrivals reached 1.462 million metric tons by April 12, up 0.7% from a year earlier, and ICE cocoa inventories rose to 2,610,453 bags by April 13. (tradingeconomics.com) (financialcontent.com) The International Cocoa Organization said in November 2025 that the market had swung from a 489,000-tonne deficit in 2023/24 to a projected 49,000-tonne surplus in 2024/25, with production rising 7.6% to 4.698 million tonnes and grindings falling 4.3% to 4.602 million tonnes. (icco.org) That reversal followed two years in which failed crops in West Africa sent cocoa to records and forced chocolate companies to raise prices. By early 2026, manufacturers were still selling product made with higher-cost beans bought or hedged months earlier. (icco.org) (fool.com) That is why cheaper cocoa does not automatically mean cheaper candy at the checkout. Mondelez told investors on February 3 that it expects flat chocolate pricing in 2026 because its cocoa costs were already locked in, and Chief Financial Officer Luca Zaramella said a one-time inventory adjustment would hit first-quarter results. (fool.com) Hershey gave a similar message on February 5, forecasting 2026 sales growth of 4% to 5% and adjusted earnings-per-share growth of 30% to 35% as gross margin recovers, even as it plans higher advertising and brand spending. (thehersheycompany.com) Processors are also signaling that end demand is still soft. Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest chocolate maker for industrial customers, said January 21 that its Global Chocolate sales volume fell 6.8% and its Global Cocoa volume fell 22.0% in the first quarter of fiscal 2025/26. (barry-callebaut.com) Bloomberg reported on April 14 that the price crash is raising hopes for more bean processing and eventually lower candy prices, but the timing depends on how fast old inventory clears and how aggressively brands use promotions instead of straight price cuts. (bloomberg.com) For shoppers, the next move is likely to be gradual: lower cocoa futures are removing one pressure point, but candy prices will still reflect hedges, inventories, promotions and the mix of premium products already on shelves. (bloomberg.com) (fool.com)