Red Sea shipping risk
Iran‑backed Houthi militants have opened a missile front against Israel and signaled renewed threats to commercial shipping in the Red Sea—putting the Bab el‑Mandeb chokepoint back under global scrutiny. Analysts warn that a fresh campaign against vessels could disrupt roughly 12% of world trade and force costly detours that spike freight and fuel costs. (apnews.com) (afr.com)
The Houthis fired a barrage of missiles at southern Israel on March 28, 2026, marking their first such strike in the latest regional escalation. (apnews.com) Houthi leaders publicly signalled they could resume the maritime campaign that was paused in mid‑November 2025, explicitly naming routes in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as potential targets. (gcaptain.com) Commercial transits through the southern Red Sea and the Bab el‑Mandeb have fallen from an average of about 70 vessels a day to roughly 30–35 vessels daily amid renewed warnings. (maritimenews.com) Rerouting container ships around the Cape of Good Hope adds roughly 10–14 days to Asia–Europe voyages and about 7–10 days to Persian Gulf–Western market sailings, increasing voyage fuel burn by hundreds of tons per ship. (themiddleeastinsider.com) Analysts put the immediate extra operating cost of the Cape detour at about $2–3 billion per week for the industry, with carriers issuing surcharges to recoup fuel and time penalties. (gosships.ghost.io) Some carriers began tentative returns through Suez late in 2025—Maersk ran a transit in December 2025—and CMA CGM announced full INDAMEX Suez services restarting in January 2026. (gocubic.io) Western navies have reinforced the region: the U.S. ordered a second carrier strike group, with the USS Carl Vinson slated to join USS Harry S. Truman, while allied escorts and patrols in the Red Sea have been stepped up. (aerotime.aero) Spot container rates on some lanes have more than doubled since late February 2026 and carriers have levied Cape surcharges typically ranging $1,500–$3,000 per TEU as P&I and war‑risk insurance costs climb. (themiddleeastinsider.com)
