Trump approval drops to 35%

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released May 19 found President Donald Trump's approval rating at 35%, down from 39% in April, with support softening even among Republicans. The poll surveyed 1,024 U.S. adults online from May 17-19, showing Trump's disapproval at 59%. Among Republicans, 74% approved, down from 82% last month—his lowest GOP rating in Reuters/Ipsos tracking since returning to office. Nate Silver's running approval tracker, updated daily through May 19, averaged 36.2% across nine polls, aligning with Reuters and showing a three-point drop since early May. 1/ Despite the dip, Trump's grip on the GOP remains tight. In Kentucky's Republican primary on May 19, Trump-backed challenger Eric Deters unseated three-term Rep. Thomas Massie, a vocal Trump critic who voted to impeach him in 2021. Massie, a libertarian-leaning Republican, finished third with 24% in a three-way race. Deters, a former judge and radio host, won 42%, per AP results. Trump endorsed Deters on Truth Social in April, calling Massie a "grandstander." NBC framed the win as part of Trump's push to purge critics ahead of November midterms, noting similar dynamics in Georgia and Alabama primaries the same day. 2/ Why the approval slide? Reuters cited economic unease and foreign policy frustrations. Only 32% approved of Trump's handling of inflation, down from 37% in April; 29% backed his Gaza ceasefire role. NPR interviews with 2024 Trump voters in Georgia revealed splits: one Black man praised tariffs on China, another called Trump's style "divisive" and regretted his vote. Silver's tracker attributes the trend to independents (27% approval) fleeing amid midterm scrutiny, though GOP base loyalty holds at 80%+ in his model. 3/ Low national numbers aren't hurting primary dominance. The New York Times called Massie's loss "a reminder of Trump's enduring hold on Republican voters," even as his overall rating lags. In Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) highlighted Trump's unpopularity, telling voters on primary night: "Let’s see what November entails," tying it to GOP turnout tests. CBS noted Georgia's Senate primary drew Trump allies forward, with broader midterm races for governor and Congress amplifying his influence despite polls. 4/ Broader context: Trump's second-term approvals have trended down from 47% post-inauguration. Silver's average hit 41% in March amid early wins on border policy, but Gaza tensions and a slowing economy eroded gains. CNN highlighted Trump's $1.776 billion compensation fund proposal for Biden-era targets as fueling "brazen presidency" critiques, correlating with the poll slump. Still, primary results echo 2022: Trump-endorsed candidates won 90% of House races then, per his campaign tallies. Analysts like Silver say party control persists unless general-election turnout spikes Democratic. 5/ What's next? Georgia's full primary results finalize May 20, with runoffs possible June 16. Kentucky certifies Deters' win by May 26, setting a November rematch against Democrat Morgan McGarvey. A fresh Reuters/Ipsos poll is due May 23. Silver updates his tracker daily, projecting midterms based on approval trends through Election Day, Nov. 3.