Spurs’ path sparks debate
San Antonio’s projected playoff route set off a wave of debate about matchup fairness and how dangerous the Spurs could be relative to their seed. (youtube.com) Analysts and outlets have flagged the Spurs as a rising threat that could be mispriced by the market. (nytimes.com)
San Antonio’s playoff path became a live argument on Tuesday night, when Portland grabbed the West’s No. 7 seed and set up a first-round series with the No. 2 Spurs. (nba.com) The bracket had already put San Antonio on the 2-vs.-7 line, but the opponent changed when the Trail Blazers beat the Phoenix Suns 114-110 on April 14 behind Deni Avdija’s 41 points. Game 1 is scheduled for Sunday, April 19, in San Antonio. (nba.com) (espn.com) San Antonio finished 62-20, two games behind Oklahoma City and eight games ahead of Denver, with a 32-8 home record and a plus-8.3 point differential. Portland finished 42-40 and reached the field through the play-in tournament. (espn.com) (sports.yahoo.com) That gap is why the debate took off: the Spurs own the West’s second-best record, but they are still on the same side of the bracket as the defending champion Thunder because the National Basketball Association does not reseed after the first round. The fixed bracket means San Antonio would meet Oklahoma City in the conference finals only if both teams advance. (nba.com) (espn.com) The other part of the argument is simpler: oddsmakers do not price San Antonio like a typical No. 2 seed with a six-year playoff drought behind it. FanDuel listed the Spurs at +500 to win the title on April 14, behind only Oklahoma City at +120 and ahead of Denver at +1000. (sportsbook.fanduel.com) (nytimes.com) Other books showed the same shape even when the exact numbers moved a little. Sportsbook Review listed San Antonio at +550 on April 13, tied with Boston for the second-shortest price behind Oklahoma City at +135. (sportsbookreview.com) The Spurs’ rise is recent and steep. ESPN reported on March 24 that San Antonio was 20-2 since February 1, the best mark in the league over that stretch, when it ended the longest playoff drought in franchise history. (espn.com) That does not settle the fairness question. The seeding system rewarded San Antonio with home court in Round 1 and a play-in survivor instead of Denver, Minnesota or Houston, while critics of the bracket point to a 62-win team drawing a tougher long-term route than its record suggests. (nba.com) (espn.com) The next test is no longer hypothetical. Portland is in, San Antonio opens at Frost Bank Center on April 19, and the argument over whether the Spurs are underseeded, underpriced or neither now moves from projections to a best-of-seven series. (nba.com 1) (nba.com 2)
