Novo Nordisk raises 2026 profit outlook after stronger-than-expected demand for Wegovy and Ozempic

1/ Novo Nordisk’s raised 2026 outlook matters because it shows the GLP-1 market is still expanding even as pricing pressure and new competition intensify. On May 6, Novo said it now expects adjusted sales and profit to decline by 4% to 12% in 2026, an improvement from its prior forecast for a 5% to 13% decline. (cnbc.com) 2/ The immediate driver was the oral Wegovy launch in the U.S. Novo said first-quarter sales of the Wegovy pill reached 2.26 billion Danish kroner, above Reuters analyst estimates of 1.16 billion kroner, and the company reported about 1.3 million prescriptions in the first three months of 2026. (cnbc.com) 3/ That helps explain why investors are watching pills so closely. Injectable GLP-1s built the market, but oral versions can widen it by lowering some of the friction around treatment initiation and persistence. Novo CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC, “The numbers with the pill speak for themselves.” (cnbc.com) 4/ Novo is now taking that playbook abroad. Emil Kongshøj Larsen, Novo’s executive vice president for international operations, told CNBC the company would go “all in” on launching the Wegovy pill outside the U.S., with first launches expected in the second half of 2026 pending approvals. (cnbc.com) 5/ The geography matters. Larsen said Novo will choose markets based on “potential,” including patient interest, physician readiness and telehealth partnerships. CNBC reported analysts see the UK, Germany and Denmark as likely early candidates, though Novo did not confirm countries. (cnbc.com) 6/ This is also where the rivalry with Eli Lilly changes shape. Lilly’s Foundayo, the brand name for orforglipron, won U.S. FDA approval on April 1 for adults with obesity, or overweight with weight-related medical problems, and Lilly said shipping would begin April 6. (investor.lilly.com) 7/ Lilly is pitching convenience directly. In its approval announcement, Lilly said Foundayo can be taken any time of day without food or water restrictions, and cited ATTAIN-1 data showing average weight loss of 27.3 pounds, or 12.4%, at the highest dose among participants who stayed on treatment. (investor.lilly.com) 8/ Novo had the first oral GLP-1 approved for weight loss in the U.S. The FDA approved oral Wegovy in December 2025, and Novo began the U.S. rollout in January 2026, with TIME reporting weight loss of roughly 16% to 17% of starting body weight in studies cited around launch. (time.com) 9/ So the competitive question is no longer just who has the best weekly injection. It is increasingly who can win the oral segment first, scale it fastest, and defend pricing as more patients, employers, payers and prescribers compare options. That framing is supported by BioSpace’s description of “oral obesity wars” after Lilly’s April approval. (biospace.com) 10/ Novo’s own numbers show the tension. Even after lifting guidance, the company still expects 2026 sales and profit to decline at constant exchange rates, with CNBC reporting lower U.S. prices and generic competition in markets including India, Canada, Brazil and China as headwinds. (cnbc.com) 11/ U.S. policy is adding another layer. AJMC reported that TrumpRx, launched on February 5, 2026, was presented as a way for Americans to buy drugs at most-favored-nation prices with cash, but experts said results have been mixed and the site does not always offer the best prices for cash-paying patients. (ajmc.com) 12/ The MFN debate goes further than a website. AJMC reported last week that the White House’s MFN proposal would peg U.S. net prices to the second-lowest net price in an eight-country basket, raising questions around access, innovation and commercial coverage. (ajmc.com) 13/ For GLP-1 makers, that means demand strength does not automatically translate into straightforward economics. Access depends on reimbursement, benefit design, prior authorization, cash-pay channels and whether lower benchmark prices actually show up at the pharmacy counter. AJMC’s TrumpRx reporting and MFN coverage both point to that gap between announced price policy and practical access. (ajmc.com) 14/ The next dates to watch are already on Novo’s calendar. Novo said it will report first-half 2026 results on August 5 and third-quarter results on November 4, while its global oral Wegovy launches are expected to begin in the second half of 2026, pending approvals. (novonordisk.com)