Scottish polls show SNP slide
- Ipsos’s final Holyrood poll put the SNP on 26% for the regional list, with Reform UK second on 18% and Labour back on 15%. - That list figure matters because it is down from the SNP’s 40% regional vote in 2021, while Ballot Box Scotland’s average sits higher at 28.8%. - The fight is now less about whether the SNP wins than whether list fragmentation blocks a majority.
Scottish politics is suddenly about the second vote. Not the constituency ballot most people notice first, but the regional list vote that decides Holyrood’s top-up seats and often decides whether a winner gets a majority at all. The new polling on Wednesday, May 6, sharpened that point. The SNP still leads comfortably, but its list support looks softer than it used to, while Reform UK has turned into a real factor on the regional ballot. (news.stv.tv) ### Why is the list vote the live issue? Holyrood uses the Additional Member System — 73 constituency seats elected first-past-the-post, then 56 regional seats used to top up parties that are underrepresented. That means a party can dominate constituencies and still (news.stv.tv)orm in Scotland — can still break through if its list vote is high enough. (yougov.com) ### What changed in the new poll? The final Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey, published on May 6, put the SNP on 35% in the constituency vote and 26% on the regional list. Reform UK was on 18% of the list vote, ahead of Labour on 15%, with the Greens o(yougov.com)ist position than the party had in 2021. (news.stv.tv) ### Why does 26% feel like a warning sign? Because the comparison point is brutal. In 2021, the SNP won 48% of the constituency vote and 40% of the regional list vote. Ipsos now has the party 14 points lower on the list than that. Even Ballot Box Scotland’s broader p(news.stv.tv) points from 2021. (news.stv.tv) ### Is Reform really the story here? Basically, yes. Reform has gone from fringe presence to plausible second place on the list in multiple polls. YouGov had Reform at 20% on the regional vote back in January, already ahead of Labour. Ballot Box Scotland’s current av(news.stv.tv), that is a genuine breakthrough. (yougov.com) ### Does this mean the SNP is losing? Not in the simple sense. The SNP still looks set to be the largest party, and the constituency lead remains big. The problem is arithmetic, not survival. If the SNP hoovers up constituency seats but underperforms on the list, the top-up system gives more room to rivals, which makes a majority harder even if the SNP still wins comfortably overall. (news.stv.tv) ### Why are people talking about tactical voting? Because the system rewards split-ticket thinking. Some pro-independence voters have long treated the list vote as a place to back Greens rather than the SNP. On the other side, a fragmented unionist vote now has a new(news.stv.tv)mid-teens on the list, small shifts can move real seats. (news.stv.tv) ### So what matters on election day? Turnout and late switching. Ipsos said roughly a quarter of voters still might change their minds on both ballots. That matters especially on the list, where a point or two can decide whether Reform, the Greens, Labour, or the Lib Dems collect scarce top-up seats — and whether the SNP ends up governing alone or needing help. (news.stv.tv) ### Bottom line? The headline is not that the SNP is finished. It is that its path to a majority looks narrower, while Reform’s rise has made the regional list vote the sharp edge of this election. (news.stv.tv)
