Bulgaria seat forecast
Nowcast EU’s April 11 post shows PB polling at 31% and projects roughly 90 seats in Bulgaria's April 19 legislative vote. (x.com). The post represents a model‑based projection rather than official results and indicates a close contest heading into the election. (x.com)
A model from Nowcast EU put Progressive Bulgaria at 31% on April 11 and projected about 90 seats before Bulgaria’s April 19 snap parliamentary election. (x.com) Bulgaria’s Central Election Commission has scheduled the vote for April 19, 2026, to fill all 240 seats in the National Assembly. The campaign officially opened on March 20. (cik.bg) (bta.bg) Politico’s poll tracker also showed Progressive Bulgaria leading at about 30% as of April 12, ahead of Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria, or GERB, at 21%, Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria at 12%, Movement for Rights and Freedoms–A New Beginning at 10%, and Revival at 7%. (politico.eu) That matters because 90 seats would still leave Progressive Bulgaria well short of the 121 needed for a majority in the 240-seat chamber. Bulgaria’s election rules use proportional representation and a 4% threshold, which usually forces coalition bargaining after the vote. (cik.bg) (wikipedia.org) This is another snap election in a long cycle of instability. Bulgarian news agency BTA said the April 19 vote will be the country’s eighth election since 2021. (bta.bg) The last parliamentary election, on October 27, 2024, again produced a fragmented chamber. The Central Election Commission’s final results gave GERB-UDF 26.388% and Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria 14.203%, with nine parties and coalitions entering parliament. (results.cik.bg) (bta.bg) The April 19 contest is being run across 31 multi-member constituencies, after the election commission reallocated seats among districts in late February. That district map shapes how national vote shares turn into parliamentary seats. (bta.bg) Election officials have also spent the past month on mechanics, including ballot draws, a formal timeline, and checks on voting machines and tabulation systems. The commission said public demonstrations of the vote-processing system were held on April 7. (bta.bg 1) (bta.bg 2) (cik.bg) (bta.bg) So the forecast points to a first-place finish, not a finished government. Bulgaria’s answer comes on April 19, when the projection gives way to counted votes. (x.com) (cik.bg)
