China house prices hit 20‑year low

China’s inflation-adjusted home prices have fallen back below their 2010 level, erasing much of the past two decades’ run-up. (fred.stlouisfed.org) The Bank for International Settlements series for China, published through the St. Louis Fed, shows the real residential property price index at 86.7897 in the fourth quarter of 2025. The series starts in 2005, and the latest reading is the lowest on that chart. (fred.stlouisfed.org) That does not mean prices are still falling at the same speed everywhere. China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on April 16 that new-home prices rose month on month in 14 of 70 large and medium-sized cities in March, up from 10 in February. (stats.gov.cn) (english.news.cn) Second-hand prices also improved at the margin. Xinhua, citing the same National Bureau of Statistics release, said 13 cities posted resale price gains in March, versus 11 in February, while first-tier cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose from February levels. (english.scio.gov.cn) The split between the long-term chart and the March snapshot explains the story. Real prices, which adjust for inflation, show how much housing wealth households have actually kept; monthly city data show whether the slide is slowing right now. (fred.stlouisfed.org) (english.news.cn) State media has leaned into the stabilization case. Xinhua said on April 28 that transaction volumes in major cities rose in March and that month-on-month price declines eased into flat or modest gains. (china.org.cn) It pointed to Beijing second-hand registrations hitting 19,886 in March, a 15-month high, and Shanghai recording 1,632 daily transactions on April 11, a five-year record. The same report said unsold commercial housing floor area was down 0.1% from a year earlier by the end of March, the first such decline in 52 months. (china.org.cn) Private-sector trackers are seeing the same tentative bounce in core cities, with more caution. Reuters reported on April 1 that China Index Academy found new-home prices in 100 cities rose 0.05% in March after a 0.04% fall in February. (money.usnews.com) But Reuters also quoted Fitch Ratings saying weak employment, high housing inventory and fragile sentiment still cloud the outlook. That is why a better March has not erased the broader picture of a property market still digging out from a years-long developer debt crisis. (money.usnews.com) So the cleanest read is two truths at once: China’s real house prices remain near a two-decade low, and the official March data show the downturn may be easing in the biggest cities. (fred.stlouisfed.org) (china.org.cn)