US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Hits New Low
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the U.S. has fallen to a new low of 6.01%, according to Freddie Mac. The continued decline in rates reflects ongoing shifts in credit markets. In a related trend, TransUnion's 2026 forecast projects continued positive momentum and moderate expansion in consumer credit and lending.
- The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.01% is a notable decrease from the 6.87% average a year ago and significantly lower than the long-term average of 7.69% since 1971. The all-time high was 18.63% in October 1981, and the record low was 2.65% in January 2021. - This rate decline is influenced by the Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy, including three interest rate cuts in late 2025, which brought the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. However, the Fed held rates steady in their January 2026 meeting. - TransUnion's 2026 forecast projects a 4.0% growth in mortgage purchase originations and a 4.2% increase in refinance originations, indicating a rebound from previously low levels. This is part of a broader trend of moderate expansion in consumer credit. - Despite the growth in mortgage originations, TransUnion also forecasts a slight increase in mortgage delinquencies (60+ days past due) to 1.65% by the end of 2026, an 11 basis point year-over-year increase. - The housing market is seeing an increase in inventory. As of January 2026, active listings were up 10.0% year-over-year, marking 27 consecutive months of inventory gains. The total for-sale inventory was around 1.16 million units as of January 31, 2026. - Existing home sales have seen some volatility, with a sharp 8.4% drop in January 2026 to an annualized rate of 3.91 million, the lowest since September 2024. Unsold inventory currently stands at approximately 3.7 months of supply. - The average U.S. home value is $357,445, reflecting a 0.2% increase over the past year. Homes are going to a pending status in about 41 days. - Key economic indicators influencing these trends include an inflation rate above the target at 2.45% and an expected unemployment rate of 4.5% by late 2026. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is influenced by inflation and economic growth expectations.
