Brazil political uncertainty rises
Polling shows President Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in a technical tie ahead of the runoff, and former President Jair Bolsonaro is being discharged from hospital to house arrest for health reasons—signals that political volatility could affect future immigration policy. Firms with Brazil clients should watch for policy shifts tied to the campaign. (reuters.com, bbc.co.uk)
AtlasIntel/Bloomberg’s Latam Pulse surveyed 5,028 Brazilians between March 18‑23 and reported a head‑to‑head second‑round split with Flávio Bolsonaro at roughly 46.3% and Lula at 46.2%, inside a reported ±1 percentage‑point margin of error. (cnnbrasil.com.br)) The same polling series shows a rapid swing: Flávio closed a roughly 12‑point gap from December to late February in Bloomberg’s tracking, marking the first time he has numerically edged Lula in this dataset. (bloomberg.com)) The Atlas/Bloomberg release also recorded Lula’s approval sliding toward a net disapproval reading — reporting approval near the mid‑40s and disapproval in the low‑50s in recent monthly tracking. (batimes.com.ar)) Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes authorised a temporary humanitarian house‑arrest order for former president Jair Bolsonaro for an initial 90‑day period, to begin upon his discharge from hospital where he has been treated for bronchopneumonia since March 13; Bolsonaro remains under a 27‑year sentence imposed in November. (msn.com)) The court’s order includes electronic monitoring and restrictions on phone and social‑media use, and the measure is subject to review at the end of the 90‑day term with the possibility of renewal. (msn.com)) Brazil’s next presidential election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, a calendar point that leaves a narrow policy window for any executive action this year and underpins why narrow polling and Bolsonaro’s temporary removal from custody matter to near‑term legislative and regulatory trajectories. (aljazeera.com))
