India-Pakistan ceasefire holds, tensions rise

Pakistan’s military on May 17 accused Indian army chief General Upendra Dwivedi of making provocative remarks that risked pushing South Asia toward another confrontation, while the ceasefire declared by India and Pakistan on May 10 remained in place. The exchange showed how the two nuclear-armed neighbors have avoided renewed fighting while continuing a public war of words a year after their most serious clash in decades. The latest dispute followed Dwivedi’s warning that Pakistan should decide whether it wanted to remain “part of geography or history” if it continued to harbor terrorists, comments reported by multiple Indian outlets on May 16. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations directorate said the remarks reflected “madness and warmongering” and warned of consequences if tensions were inflamed again. ### What exactly is still holding between India and Pakistan? The ceasefire announced on May 10 is still the core fact on the ground. A House of Commons Library briefing says India and Pakistan carried out military strikes from the evening of May 6 until May 10, 2025, before declaring a ceasefire on May 10. The May 2025 confrontation followed the April 22, 2025 attack near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 people. (pakistantoday.com.pk) The same House of Commons briefing and a Congressional Research Service note say India blamed Pakistan-based groups for the attack, while Pakistan denied involvement and called for an independent investigation. ### What did India’s army chief say that triggered Pakistan’s response? (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) General Upendra Dwivedi said on May 16 that if Pakistan continued to “harbour terrorists and operate against India,” it would have to decide whether it wanted to be “part of geography or history.” Indian media reports said he made the remarks at a “Sena Samvad” event in New Delhi when asked how India would respond if conditions similar to those preceding Operation Sindoor recurred. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) Pakistan’s military media wing responded a day later. ISPR said Dwivedi’s remarks were provocative, rejected the premise of his warning, and said any attempt to push the region toward conflict would have “devastating consequences” for South Asia. ### Why are Kashmir politicians talking about dialogue now? Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, two former chief ministers from Indian-administered Kashmir, have publicly backed renewed engagement with Pakistan in recent days. (newindianexpress.com) Pakistan Today, citing Dawn and Indian media reports, said both supported calls for talks after remarks by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh secretary general Dattatreya Hosabale and retired Indian army chief Manoj Naravane. (pakistantoday.com.pk) Abdullah was quoted as saying that “war is no solution and dialogue is the only way forward.” Mufti said support for talks mattered because it came from figures associated with India’s establishment and could create room for a different approach, according to the same reports. ### Does that mean a formal peace process has started? (pakistantoday.com.pk) No public evidence shows that New Delhi and Islamabad have launched a new formal peace process. The available reporting points instead to public calls for talks from politicians and commentators after a year of strain, while the ceasefire itself remains the only verified bilateral step currently in force. (pakistantoday.com.pk) The underlying dispute also remains unchanged. The House of Commons Library says Kashmir has been divided by the Line of Control since the first India-Pakistan war, and both countries continue to hold conflicting claims over the territory. ### What are the main unresolved flashpoints after the ceasefire? The April 2025 Pahalgam attack remains the immediate trigger for the latest crisis. (pakistantoday.com.pk) Congressional Research Service said India had not publicly presented evidence of a Pakistani link to the attack even as Indian officials maintained that the attackers were tied to Pakistan-based militant groups. The Indus Waters Treaty is another unresolved issue. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) The House of Commons Library says India moved after the Pahalgam attack to suspend the treaty, a key water-sharing agreement that is vital for irrigation and hydropower, especially for Pakistan. ### What comes next to watch? May 2026 statements from ISPR, General Dwivedi and Kashmir politicians suggest the next test will be political rather than military: whether public calls for talks develop into official contact. (congress.gov) For now, the clearest benchmark remains the ceasefire declared on May 10, 2025, and any further public statements from New Delhi, Islamabad, or Kashmir leaders including Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti. (pakistantoday.com.pk) (commonslibrary.parliament.uk)