Foundry race tightens
TSMC is forecast to post another record quarter as AI demand fuels chipmaking profits, while Japan approved an extra $4 billion to scale Rapidus toward 2‑nanometre production. Analysts are framing these moves as evidence that manufacturing capacity — not just design — is the critical choke point for AI hardware. (blockonomi.com, evertiq.com)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is heading toward another record quarter, while Japan just added nearly $4 billion to push Rapidus toward 2-nanometer chips. (usnews.com, usnews.com) Analysts polled by London Stock Exchange Group expect Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to report first-quarter net profit of T$542.6 billion, or about $17.1 billion, on Thursday, April 16. Any result above T$505.7 billion would be the company’s highest quarterly profit on record. (usnews.com, bworldonline.com) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said last week that first-quarter revenue rose 35% from a year earlier, and analysts raised their April-to-June revenue forecast to a record T$1.2 trillion. The company’s Taipei-listed shares have gained 29% this year, compared with a 22% rise in Taiwan’s benchmark index. (bworldonline.com, usnews.com) A foundry is the factory that makes chips designed by companies like Nvidia and Apple. Right now, the squeeze is not only on chip designs but on the specialized production lines that can etch 3-nanometer circuits and package high-end artificial intelligence processors. (usnews.com) Reuters reported that demand for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s 3-nanometer process and advanced packaging still exceeds current capacity. Chief Executive C.C. Wei said in late 2025 that advanced-node output was running at roughly one-third of what major customers wanted to use. (usnews.com, asiabusinessoutlook.com) Japan’s industry ministry said on Saturday, April 11, that it approved an additional 631.5 billion yen, or $3.96 billion, for Rapidus research and development. That brought Rapidus’ total research and development assistance to 2.354 trillion yen. (usnews.com) Rapidus is the state-backed Japanese chipmaker set up in 2022, and it plans to begin mass production of 2-nanometer semiconductors in 2027 at its plant in Chitose, Hokkaido. Japan’s government said on March 31 that fiscal 2025 support for Rapidus could reach 802.5 billion yen, and the company said in February it had completed a 267.6 billion yen funding round with government and private-sector backing. (jiji.com, rapidus.inc) The money is part of a wider Japanese effort to rebuild domestic semiconductor production and reduce supply-chain dependence on overseas factories. The ministry said the same support package also backs chip-design projects involving Fujitsu and IBM Japan. (usnews.com) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is also spending heavily outside Taiwan, including a planned $165 billion buildout in Arizona and expanded operations in Japan. Investors are watching this week for whether the company lifts its 2026 capital-spending plan above the current $52 billion to $56 billion range. (usnews.com, asiabusinessoutlook.com) The next checkpoint comes on Thursday, April 16, when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reports earnings and updates its outlook. Japan, meanwhile, is paying now for a factory base it wants in place before the 2-nanometer race is decided. (usnews.com, jiji.com)
