Economist Claims US Job Market in 'Worst Recessions'
Economist Roman Sheremeta stated that the U.S. job market is currently in one of its worst recessions in decades. In a social media post accompanied by a chart, he criticized the competence of current leadership. The claim challenges official narratives of a stable employment landscape.
- The official unemployment rate in the U.S. was 4.3% in January 2026, a slight decrease from 4.4% in December 2025. The number of unemployed individuals fell to 7.36 million, while total employment saw an increase. - Job openings in the United States decreased to 6.542 million in December 2025, which is the lowest level recorded since September 2020 and was significantly below market expectations. This decline was most notable in the professional and business services, retail trade, and finance and insurance sectors. - Several key recession indicators are being monitored by economists. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially declares U.S. recessions, tracks employment, industrial production, income, and consumer spending. While some signs of economic contraction have been observed, experts do not currently believe these signals indicate the U.S. is in a recession. - Private sector job creation has shown signs of slowing. According to ADP, private employers added only 22,000 jobs in January 2026, with healthcare being a standout sector for growth while manufacturing has seen consistent job losses. Job creation in 2025 was significantly lower than in 2024. - LinkedIn's hiring data indicates a slowdown, with national hiring in January 2026 being 5.7% lower than in January 2025 and over 20% below pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that while layoffs are not widespread, the pace of hiring has cooled. - The Sahm Rule, a recession indicator, is triggered when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by at least 0.5 percentage points above its low from the previous 12 months. This is a metric economists are watching closely as the unemployment rate has seen some fluctuations. - Despite a cooling job market, many economists forecast that the U.S. economy has a strong chance of avoiding a recession in 2026, with the average odds of a downturn estimated at just over one in four. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that payroll employment increased by 130,000 in January 2026. However, revisions to 2025 data showed a significant step down in average monthly job gains compared to the previous year.
