Russia balances ties with Iran, India

Russia’s diplomacy is being tested across several fronts at once. Observer Research Foundation analysts said on May 21 that Moscow is trying to preserve working ties with Iran, Gulf monarchies, Israel and India while the war in Ukraine continues and the Middle East remains volatile. The assessment followed a May 20 post by ORF on X and came a day after President Vladimir Putin joined Chinese President Xi Jinping in condemning U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran as illegal. Those overlapping moves have sharpened questions for India, which has expanded trade with Russia while maintaining its own ties across the Middle East. ### Why is Russia’s balancing act under new strain now? May 20 put Russia’s competing relationships in one frame. In Beijing, Putin and Xi issued a joint statement saying U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran “breach international law” and undermine Middle East stability, according to the statement carried by the Kremlin and reported by ABC News. ORF said on X on May 20 that Russia was navigating ties with Tehran, the Gulf, Israel and the war in Ukraine at the same time. ORF’s YouTube channel also published a program titled “The Russia-Iran Nexus: A New Strategic Reality for the Gulf and India” two days before May 21. ### How do Iran and Ukraine intersect in Moscow’s calculations? Russia’s war in Ukraine has deepened its links with Tehran. (abcnews.com) ABC News reported on May 20 that Iran’s support, including Iranian-designed Shahed drones, has played a key role in Russia’s campaign since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Iran relationship does not erase Russia’s other interests. (youtube.com) ORF’s framing points to a broader problem for Moscow: support for Tehran can complicate Russia’s contacts with Gulf states and Israel, both of which remain important regional actors. That tension is central to the ORF discussion, even as Moscow publicly backed Iran after the latest strikes. ### Where does India fit into this picture? (abcnews.com) India remains one of the main reasons this story matters beyond the Middle East. ORF wrote in November 2024 that India had emerged as Russia’s second-largest trading partner after the Ukraine war, with bilateral trade rising from $12 billion in 2021 to $49 billion in 2022 and $65 billion by the end of 2023. Harsh V. Pant of ORF wrote on March 19, 2026 that India follows “calibrated multi-alignment” in the Middle East, maintaining parallel relationships with Iran, the Gulf monarchies, Israel and the United States. (youtube.com) Pant said India imports close to 88% of its crude oil and has tried to cushion regional shocks through diversification, strategic reserves and additional sourcing from Russia, the United States and other suppliers. (orfonline.org) ### Why does China appear in an explainer about Russia and India? China is part of the story because Russia’s latest public position on Iran was delivered alongside Xi. The May 20 Xi-Putin statement showed Moscow and Beijing aligning diplomatically against U.S. and Israeli action in Iran, while also reinforcing their broader pragmatic partnership on trade and energy. (orfonline.org) That matters for New Delhi because India’s ties with Russia have grown most visibly through energy trade since 2022. ORF’s earlier work on India-Russia economic relations said discounted Russian oil was the main driver of the surge in bilateral trade, even as the older defense-centered relationship changed shape. ### What should readers watch next? ORF’s May 20 X post and its recent video discussion are the clearest public markers of this analysis. (abcnews.com) The next concrete developments are likely to come from Russian and Chinese statements on Iran, Indian government responses to Middle East disruptions, and any further changes in energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. (youtube.com) (orfonline.org)