Trump heads to Beijing weakened, say analysts

Donald Trump is heading to Beijing on May 14 and 15 for talks with Xi Jinping. On paper, that sounds like a classic big-power summit — presidents, CEOs, tariff bargaining, maybe a few headline-grabbing deals. But the setup is rough for Trump. The Iran war is now bleeding into U.S.-China ties, his biggest tariff weapon got knocked out by the Supreme Court in February, and even the business delegation around him looks smaller and more hesitant than the one he brought in 2017. ### What changed right before the trip? The immediate jolt came from new U.S. sanctions. The State Department said three Chinese companies — Meentropy Technology, The Earth Eye, and Chang Guang Satellite Technology — helped Iran by providing satellite imagery tied to strikes on U.S. forces. That landed just days before the summit, which means Trump is arriving in Beijing while openly accusing Chinese entities of aiding an enemy in an active conflict. (brookings.edu) That is not how you set up a friendly trade reset. ### Why does Iran matter so much here? Because Iran is no longer a side issue. It is crowding out the rest of the agenda. Trump wants Beijing to use its ties with Tehran to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and calm the energy shock coming from the war. China, meanwhile, has hosted Iran’s foreign minister and wants to present itself as a stabilizing power. So Beijing now has something Washington wants urgently — help on a live security crisis. (politico.com) That shifts leverage, even if both sides deny it in public. ### Why are trade expectations so low? Because the machinery for a big deal looks thin. Brookings flagged “meager bureaucratic preparations” and warned that Trump’s team may have reduced Beijing’s incentive to offer concessions by pushing early and loudly for repeated leader-level meetings. Reuters also reported a scaled-back CEO delegation, reflecting internal divisions in the administration and limited expectations for deliverables. (cnbc.com) Basically, if both the prep work and the guest list are smaller, nobody should expect a 2017-style splash. ### What happened to Trump’s tariff leverage? A lot of it disappeared on February 20. In *Learning Resources v. Trump*, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the emergency law Trump used — IEEPA — does not authorize presidential tariffs. That wiped out a central pressure tool in his China playbook. Brookings noted that the administration is now trying to rebuild parts of the tariff regime through other channels, but that is slower, narrower, and easier for Beijing to game. (brookings.edu) Xi goes into this meeting knowing Trump’s most dramatic trade threat already got clipped at home. ### Why does the smaller CEO group matter? Because summit optics are part of the negotiation. In 2017, Trump brought 29 high-profile executives. This time, Reuters said the White House considered inviting around a dozen, with names including leaders from Boeing, Citigroup, Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm under discussion. China notices that. A smaller, late-arriving business entourage signals caution — and maybe disagreement inside Washington about whether this trip is for commercial wins, strategic management, or Iran crisis control. (supremecourt.gov) ### Is Trump also weaker at home? That is the broader read from analysts. South China Morning Post described Trump as politically dented and militarily overextended heading into the summit, while recent U.S. polling roundups show some of his weakest approval numbers of this term. Foreign leaders do watch that stuff. Not because polls decide policy, but because they hint at how badly a president needs a visible win. Xi can use that. (usnews.com) He does not need to offer much if he thinks Trump is the one who needs the photo, the dinner, and the announcement. ### So what can Xi ask for? Probably more than he could have a few months ago. Analysts point to lower Chinese offers on soybeans or Boeing purchases, paired with tougher asks on tariffs, export controls, Taiwan, and the terms of any China help on Iran. The pattern is simple — Beijing can dangle cooperation, but on less favorable terms. That does not mean Xi dominates every issue. It means Trump is walking into a negotiation where urgency is mostly on his side. (scmp.com) ### Bottom line? This summit still matters. Two presidents can always surprise people. But the likely outcome is not a grand bargain. It is a constrained meeting where Trump needs help on Iran, wants business headlines, and no longer has the same tariff club he used to wave around. Xi knows all of that — and that is why so many analysts think Beijing now has the stronger hand. (brookings.edu) (scmp.com)