Europe’s summer flights risk

European airlines are warning that some flights could be grounded this summer if airports cannot secure enough jet fuel. (reuters.com) The pressure comes from two shocks at once: the war involving Iran has disrupted fuel flows from the Persian Gulf, and Europe has less refining capacity than it used to. The International Air Transport Association said the conflict that escalated on February 28, 2026 cut tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by 70% to 80%. (reuters.com) (iata.org) Jet fuel is refined from crude oil, and airports need a steady stream of deliveries because storage is limited and summer travel pushes daily demand higher. IATA said Europe gets about 25% to 30% of its jet fuel from the Persian Gulf, leaving airlines exposed when that route is disrupted. (iata.org 1) (iata.org 2) Europe’s own backup has weakened as refineries have shut down. IATA said four European refineries stopped crude processing in 2025, removing about 400,000 barrels a day of capacity from the market. (iata.org) That trend has been building for years as older European plants lost ground to larger, newer refineries elsewhere and faced tighter local environmental rules. IATA said Europe’s jet fuel supply resilience has weakened as reliance on imports grows, while the International Energy Agency said refining activity in Europe is set to slow further through 2030. (iata.org) (iea.org) The wider energy backdrop is already tense. On March 31, 2026, the European Commission told European Union governments to coordinate preparations to secure oil and refined-product supplies because of volatility linked to the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (ec.europa.eu) Airlines are especially sensitive to jet fuel shortages because fuel is one of their biggest costs and because refineries often prioritize other products. IATA said jet fuel accounts for only 9% of global refined output even as demand is projected to grow by nearly 4% in both 2025 and 2026. (iata.org) Europe also remains structurally dependent on imported energy. Eurostat said petroleum products made up 38% of the European Union energy mix in 2024, and the bloc still relies on non-European Union suppliers for a large share of oil and petroleum products. (ec.europa.eu) The immediate question is whether suppliers can keep airports stocked through the peak holiday season without major interruptions. If they cannot, the warning from airlines is simple: planes may be ready to fly, but fuel availability could decide which departures actually leave the gate. (reuters.com)