Fitch still bullish on India

Fitch packaged its view in the Global Economic Outlook — March 2026 report, which also breaks out domestic demand drivers such as a projected 8.6% rise in consumer spending and a 6.9% rise in investment for the current fiscal. etvbharat.com The same March datasheet raised Fitch’s outlook for the year after and baked in a roughly $70-per‑barrel Brent assumption as a key scenario input. fitchratings.com Official Indian forecasts and domestic banks point to a strong nominal backdrop: the government’s Macro‑Economic Framework projected nominal GDP at 10.1% for FY26 in PIB releases, while SBI analysts forecast nominal growth of about 10.5–11% for FY27. pib.gov.in Global strategists make the link to equities: Goldman Sachs Research forecasts real GDP of about 6.9% in 2026 and cites policy continuity and new trade deals as upside for corporate earnings. goldmansachs.com Jefferies’ Christopher Wood and market analysts such as Pradeep Gupta have explicitly tied a stronger nominal GDP backdrop to potential double‑digit large‑cap returns, arguing it underpins long‑term earnings assumptions. cnbctv18.com That structural case coexists with clear short‑term pressures: foreign portfolio investors sold roughly ₹52,704 crore of Indian equities in the first half of March 2026, and early‑March outflows topped about ₹45,000 crore over eight trading days, even as domestic institutional investors were net buyers. economictimes.indiatimes.com Policy is the explicit counterbalance: the Union Budget for FY2026‑27 lifted public capital expenditure to ₹12.2 lakh crore (a ~9% increase over the prior year’s budgeted capex), a key plank investors point to when keeping India on strategic allocation lists. business-standard.com