Europe flight fuel risk

Europe’s summer flight schedule is under pressure because airports and airlines say jet fuel could run short within weeks if Gulf supplies stay disrupted. (hydrocarbonprocessing.com) The immediate trigger is the war with Iran and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane that carries a large share of global oil trade. Airports Council International Europe warned the European Commission in a letter dated April 9 that a “systemic” jet fuel shortage could hit the European Union within three weeks if traffic through Hormuz does not resume in a stable way. (cnbc.com) Reuters reported on April 15 that Europe has shut more than 30 refineries over the past 25 years, cutting refining capacity by about 16%. That left the region more dependent on imported jet fuel than on any other major transport fuel just as summer travel demand is building. (hydrocarbonprocessing.com) Jet fuel is refined from crude oil, and Europe now makes less of it at home because older plants have closed or switched away from crude processing. The International Air Transport Association said in November 2025 that Europe’s jet fuel supply resilience had weakened as import dependence grew and refinery closures spread across the region. (iata.org) That weakness has deepened during Europe’s broader energy reshuffle since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The International Energy Agency says European governments cut Russian fuel imports, raised energy-security goals and accelerated cleaner-energy policies, but the region still has to replace old infrastructure and tighten supply chains. (iea.org) The airline industry has been warning for months that jet fuel is the awkward part of the transition: demand for flying is still rising, but refinery economics favor closures. In a November 2025 brief, the International Air Transport Association said four European refineries stopped crude processing in 2025 alone, removing about 400,000 barrels a day of capacity. (iata.org) The same brief said Europe’s total refining capacity could fall by more than 5 million barrels a day by 2050, nearly half its 2024 level of 13 million barrels a day. It said replacing lost domestic supply is difficult because jet fuel moves through cross-border pipelines, ports, storage tanks and contracts that cannot be rerouted quickly. (iata.org) At the same time, the European Union is requiring cleaner aviation fuel. The European Commission’s ReFuelEU Aviation rules took effect from January 2025 and require fuel suppliers to blend increasing shares of sustainable aviation fuel into jet fuel supplied at European Union airports, starting at 2% in 2025. (ec.europa.eu) Industry groups say the climate policy is not the cause of the current shortage risk, but it adds cost and complexity to a market already short of local refining capacity. The International Air Transport Association said some older refineries had become uncompetitive against newer plants elsewhere and that stricter local rules discouraged fossil-fuel production even as airlines still rely heavily on conventional jet fuel. (iata.org) The European Union is now working on contingency steps to protect aviation fuel supplies, according to Reuters on April 16. Whether summer schedules hold will depend less on ticket demand than on whether Europe can keep enough kerosene moving from refineries and import terminals to airport tanks. (msn.com)