FAO warns of 6–12 month global food crisis as Strait of Hormuz disruptions hit shipping

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said on May 20 that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just an energy and shipping problem. The agency warned it could become a severe global food-price crisis within six to 12 months if higher oil, fertilizer and freight costs keep feeding through to farms and food markets. FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero said the risk comes from a chain reaction: energy prices rise, fertilizer becomes scarcer and more expensive, farmers cut use, yields fall and food inflation follows. The warning comes as the strait remains a chokepoint for oil, gas and fertilizer trade and as shipping costs and insurance premiums have climbed. ### Why is a shipping disruption turning into a food story? The Strait of Hormuz carries far more than crude. FAO said the corridor is critical for global flows of oil, liquefied natural gas and fertilizers, and that a prolonged disruption hits agriculture through input costs before it shows up in grocery bills. Torero told a U.N. briefing in March that the shock was “systematic” for agrifood systems, not only an energy shock. (fao.org) UN Trade and Development said on March 30 that daily ship transits through the strait fell from an average of 129 in February to 6 in March, a drop of about 95%. The agency said the disruption was already linking energy markets to food systems because the route carries around a quarter of seaborne oil as well as significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. (fao.org) ### What exactly is FAO warning could happen over the next year? FAO said on May 20 that decisions being taken now by farmers and governments on fertilizer use, imports, financing and crop choices will determine whether a severe global food-price crisis emerges within six to 12 months. The agency said the window for preventive action is closing quickly. (unctad.org) Máximo Torero said the shock unfolds in stages, beginning with energy and fertilizer and then moving through seeds, yields, commodity prices and food inflation. FAO said the April Food Price Index rose for a third straight month, driven by higher energy costs and disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. ### Why are fertilizer markets at the center of the risk? (fao.org) Natural gas is the main feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, and FAO said higher gas prices are pushing fertilizer costs up. Torero said Middle East granular urea prices rose 19% in the first week of March, while Egyptian urea prices rose 28%. FAO projections showed global fertilizer prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists. (fao.org) UNCTAD said the Gulf region is central both as a fertilizer producer and as a trade route, so disruption affects supply even outside the Middle East. FAO also said the region accounts for nearly half of global sulfur trade, a key input for phosphate fertilizers, raising the risk that shortages spread beyond nitrogen products. (fao.org) ### How does that reach farms and consumers? Farmers respond first through input use. Torero said producers facing higher fertilizer and fuel bills are likely to reduce fertilizer application or switch to less input-intensive crops, which can lower yields later in the season. FAO said that is why the food risk is delayed rather than immediate: the damage shows up as harvests come in and stocks tighten. (fao.org) Insurance and freight are also part of the squeeze. FAO said war-risk insurance premiums rose from 0.25% to as high as 10% of vessel value after high-risk zones were expanded in early March, with coverage resetting every seven days. Those costs raise the delivered price of both farm inputs and food. ### What are governments and traders being told to do now? (fao.org) FAO said the immediate priorities are to secure alternative land and sea corridors, avoid export restrictions by major producers, protect humanitarian food flows and build buffers to absorb higher transport costs. David Laborde, director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division, said alternative routes through the eastern Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea could help, though he said capacity is limited. (fao.org) The next test is the 2026 planting and import cycle. FAO said the outcome will depend on decisions taken in the coming months by governments, traders, lenders and farmers on fertilizer purchases, routing and food trade policy, with effects likely to show in the second half of 2026 and into 2027. (fao.org)