India-Pakistan ceasefire holds, mistrust deepens

A year after India and Pakistan came closest to a much wider war, the ceasefire is still intact. That is the good news. The bad news is that almost everything underneath it still looks unstable — the militant infrastructure, the public rhetoric, and the mutual assumption that the other side is preparing for the next round. This week sharpened that contradiction. Satellite imagery suggested Jaish-e-Mohammad is rebuilding strike-hit sites, and Pakistan’s defence minister warned that any future Indian move would meet a stronger response. (indiatoday.in) ### What changed this week? Two things. First, imagery published on May 5 pointed to fresh repair and clearance work at Jaish-e-Mohammad-linked locations in Bahawalpur and Muzaffarabad that India had targeted during Operation Sindoor in May 2025. Then, on Ma(indiatoday.in)ing is not. (indiatoday.in) ### Why do those sites matter? Because Bahawalpur is not just any place on the map. It has long been tied to Jaish-e-Mohammad, the Pakistan-based militant group India blames for major attacks, and Muzaffarabad has also figured in India’s case that cross-bord(indiatoday.in)underlying ecosystem survived the strikes. (indiatoday.in) ### What was Operation Sindoor again? It was India’s military response after the April 22, 2025 Pahalgam attack in Jammu and Kashmir, where 26 civilians were killed. Congress’s research service describes the May 2025 crisis as the worst fighting between Indi(indiatoday.in)s exactly the sort of conclusion that can make the next crisis more dangerous. (congress.gov) ### So if the ceasefire holds, why worry? Because a ceasefire is not the same thing as trust. Think of it less like reconciliation and more like two people stepping back from a ledge while keeping their fists up. The Line of Control may be quieter, but the core dispute remains, the militant question remains, and both militaries now have a fresher memory of how quickly strikes, drones, and retaliation can stack up. (congress.gov) ### Why is Pakistan talking this way now? Partly domestic politics, partly deterrence. Pakistani officials are framing last year’s clash as proof that the country can absorb and answer Indian attacks. That message is aimed outward at India, but also inward at a domestic audience that wants to hear strength, not caution. The catch is that deterrence messaging can stabilize a border and inflame it at the same time. (pakistantoday.com.pk) ### What is India likely to take from this? India’s security establishment is likely to see rebuilding activity as confirmation that punitive strikes alone do not permanently dismantle militant infrastructure. That does not automatically mean another strike is coming. But it does mean the thre(pakistantoday.com.pk)cture is now more reactive than before 2025. (indiatoday.in) ### Does deterrence still work? So far, yes — narrowly. The ceasefire has lasted roughly a year, which is not trivial after a crisis this severe. But deterrence here looks fragile, not settled. It depends on both sides believing the costs of escalation are too high, while also believing they must keep proving resolve. That is a hard balance to hold for long. (congress.gov) ### Bottom line The immediate story is calm holding on the surface. The deeper story is that the machinery of mistrust is still running. As long as militant sites can reappear and both governments keep talking in terms of retaliation, the ceasefire will look less like peace and more like an intermission.