Fox Weather warns heavy rain Memorial Day

Fox Weather said on May 17 that heavy rain, thunderstorms and cooler temperatures could disrupt Memorial Day weekend plans for millions of Americans across much of the country. The forecast, published ahead of the May 23-25 holiday weekend, said a high-pressure system off the East Coast and a disturbance moving out of the West could combine to draw Atlantic and Gulf moisture into the South, Midwest and Northeast. NOAA forecast centers were also highlighting heavy rain and severe weather threats in parts of the Plains and Midwest as of May 18. The National Weather Service said severe storms, including large hail, damaging wind and possible tornadoes, were possible in the central Plains. ### Where does Fox Weather say the holiday weekend looks most unsettled? Fox Weather said the heaviest holiday-weekend rain threat could extend from the South into the Northeast. The outlet said multiple inches of rain were possible in cities including Houston, Nashville and New York City, with beach plans and other outdoor gatherings at risk. Major airports in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Atlanta were among the travel hubs Fox Weather said were worth monitoring. The outlet said the same storm pattern could bring delays for people flying or driving at the start of the long weekend. ### What are federal forecasters saying about the broader pattern? NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center said on May 18 that a western-to-central U.S. upper-level trough would support multiple days of severe weather and heavy rain or flash flooding across the Plains and Midwest. The center said Gulf moisture moving northward ahead of a slow-moving front would help fuel the threat. The National Weather Service said on May 18 that severe storms, including large hail, strong wind and “perhaps a couple of tornadoes,” were possible in the central Plains. The agency also said late-season mountain snow was expected in parts of the Northwest and Great Basin, while heat was spreading across the eastern United States. ### Does NOAA’s longer-range outlook line up with the Memorial Day concern? NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in a hazards outlook issued May 14 that there was a slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley from Friday, May 22, through Monday, May 25. That period covers the start of Memorial Day weekend and the holiday itself. The Climate Prediction Center said southerly return flow into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley was expected to increase the chances for heavy precipitation. The agency did not describe a nationwide washout, but it did identify that corridor as a specific area of concern in the federal week-two outlook. ### How cold could it get in places expecting summer weather? Fox Weather said some of the early-week warmth in the Northeast would not last. The outlet said temperatures could fall into the upper 60s by Thursday in some areas, replacing the summer-like conditions many people had at the start of the week. The same report said another wet weekend was possible in the Northeast. Fox Weather described the combination as a setback for beachgoers and others planning outdoor events during the unofficial start of summer. ### What does this mean for travelers making plans now? Memorial Day travel typically builds before the Friday start of the holiday weekend, and Fox Weather said rain and thunderstorms could affect both inland and coastal routes. The outlet pointed specifically to airport operations in Texas and the Southeast, where thunderstorms often trigger delays that ripple through the broader network. NOAA’s forecast centers were already emphasizing flash-flood and severe-weather risks in the Plains and Midwest on May 18. Travelers checking plans later this week will likely be watching updated airport forecasts, local National Weather Service offices and NOAA hazard maps as the May 23-25 weekend gets closer. ### When will the next forecast updates arrive? NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center updates its national forecast charts and hazards outlooks daily, and the National Weather Service refreshes local forecasts and alerts throughout the day. Fox Weather said its Memorial Day weekend outlook was published May 17 and included video analysis from meteorologist Jane Minar. Friday, May 22, is the first day covered by NOAA’s week-two heavy-precipitation risk area in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Local forecast offices, the Weather Prediction Center and the Climate Prediction Center are expected to refine those outlooks as the May 23-25 holiday weekend approaches.