AAA forecasts 45 million travelers

Memorial Day travel is shaping up to be huge this year. AAA now expects 45 million Americans to go at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25. That would be a new record for the holiday. The simple version is that people are still taking the trip anyway — even with fuel costs running hotter than they were a year ago. ### What exactly did AAA forecast? AAA’s new forecast, released May 11, puts total Memorial Day travel at 45 million people nationwide. That is just above last year’s 44.8 million and enough to set a new high for the holiday weekend. The travel window AAA uses is five days long, from Thursday through Monday, which matters because it captures the early getaways and the Monday return crush. ### Why is the number so big? Because Memorial Day does two jobs at once. It is a federal holiday, but it is also the unofficial start of summer travel. A lot of people do not need a big vacation budget to justify it — they just need a long weekend, a car, and somewhere within a few hours’ drive. That makes the holiday unusually resilient even when travel gets more expensive. ### How many people are driving? Most of them. AAA says 39.1 million travelers will go by car. That is the real story inside the story. Air travel gets the attention, but highways carry the bulk of the holiday load. So the pressure point is not just airports — it is interstates, urban bottlenecks, beach routes, and the return trip home on Monday afternoon. ### What about flights? Airports are going to feel busy too. AAA expects 3.66 million people to fly over the holiday period. That is a much smaller number than the driving total, but it is still a very large air-travel wave packed into a short window. The interesting wrinkle is that AAA says airfare has been lower than last year for travelers who booked early, which helps explain why flying is still holding up. ### So are higher gas prices not stopping people? Not really. They may shape behavior, but they are not killing demand. AAA said gas prices are higher than they were over Memorial Day last year, and some regional outlets noted current pump prices are the highest for this point in the season since 2022. But turns out a holiday road trip is one of the last things households cut. People may shorten the drive, split costs, or trim spending at the destination instead. ### Why do state forecasts matter? They show how broad this is. In Indiana, AAA projected about 968,000 to 969,000 Hoosiers will travel. In Tennessee, the figure is 950,000, also a state holiday record. Those state cuts help translate the national number into something more concrete — not just “America is traveling,” but specific roads, airports, and metro areas getting slammed at the same time. ### When will the crunch hit? The holiday travel period runs May 21 to May 25, but the worst stress usually bunches around departure day and the trip home. Thursday and Friday should be heavy for outbound traffic. Monday will be the ugly one for returns. Basically, if millions of people are taking short trips on the same calendar, the network does not need to fail to feel jammed — it just needs to get crowded everywhere at once. ### Bottom line This forecast says summer travel demand is still alive and well. A record 45 million people is not just a feel-good holiday stat — it is a sign that Americans are still willing to absorb higher travel costs for short leisure trips, especially when the easiest option is to get in the car and go.