AAA forecasts 45 million Memorial travelers

Memorial Day travel is turning into a stress test for the American consumer — and, at least for now, people are still saying yes to the trip. AAA now expects 45 million Americans to go at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25. (newsroom.aaa.com) That would be a new Memorial Day weekend record. The striking part is that this is happening even as gas prices have jumped hard this spring. ### What actually changed? AAA released its 2026 holiday forecast on May 11, and the headline number is simple: 45 million travelers. That is slightly above last year’s 44.8 million and enough to set a new high for the weekend. (newsroom.aaa.com) So this is not a rebound story anymore. Basically, it is a continuation story — Americans were already traveling in record numbers, and now they’re doing a little more of it. ### Where is the crowd really coming from? Mostly cars. AAA says 39.1 million people will drive, which works out to 87% of all Memorial Day travelers. Air travel is much smaller at 3.66 million, and another 2.2 million are expected to go by bus, train, or cruise. (newsroom.aaa.com) So when people hear “45 million travelers,” they should mostly picture packed interstates, not just busy airports. ### Why are people still driving with gas this high? Because driving is still the most flexible option, and for families it often stays the easiest one even when fuel hurts. The catch is that this year’s fuel backdrop looks very different from last year’s. (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA said on May 7 that the national average for regular gas had risen to $4.55 a gallon — up 25 cents for the second straight week and $1.40 higher than a year earlier. Even with that, road trips are still leading the holiday. ### Is flying any cheaper? A little — if people booked early. AAA says roundtrip domestic airfare for Memorial Day trips is running 6% below last year, with an average ticket around $800. (newsroom.aaa.com) But that cheaper airfare comes with an asterisk. AAA notes many of those bookings were made before higher jet fuel prices started feeding into ticket costs. So the people who planned ahead may have caught a break that late bookers will not. ### What does this say about the economy? It says leisure travel is holding up better than the sticker shock story would suggest. People may be trading down on the shape of the trip — shorter drives, earlier bookings, cheaper rentals — but they are not broadly canceling the long weekend. (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA even says domestic car rentals are 1% cheaper than a year ago, which helps at the margins. Turns out a three-day weekend is a strong excuse to keep the trip on the calendar. ### Where will the squeeze show up first? On the roads, then in breakdowns and pickup lines. AAA says Thursday and Friday should be the busiest rental-car pickup days, with Orlando, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Denver, and Boston seeing the strongest demand. (newsroom.aaa.com) It also handled more than 350,000 roadside assistance calls over last year’s Memorial Day weekend. That is a useful reminder that congestion is only part of the problem — a lot of holiday misery starts with dead batteries, flat tires, and empty tanks. ### So what is the real takeaway? This forecast is less about one busy weekend than about a pattern. (midstates.aaa.com) Memorial Day 2025 already broke the old record. Memorial Day 2026 is on track to top that again, despite much worse fuel prices. In plain English — Americans still look willing to spend on travel when the trip feels manageable, familiar, and tied to a built-in holiday. (newsroom.aaa.com 1) (newsroom.aaa.com 2)