Restaurants face triple squeeze

Restaurants are rewriting menus in 2026 as fuel costs rise above $4 a gallon, GLP-1 drugs shrink appetites, and federal nutrition advice shifts toward protein. (nrn.com) (gasprices.aaa.com) (fns.usda.gov) Technomic told the Restaurant Leadership Conference in Phoenix this week that industry traffic fell 0.8% in 2025, matched 2024’s decline, then started 2026 strong before flattening in March. Rich Shank said the slowdown followed the war in Iran and the jump in fuel costs. (nrn.com) AAA said the national average for regular gasoline hit $4.08 on April 2, rose to $4.16 on April 9, and eased to $4.09 on April 16. Higher pump prices raise delivery, commuting, and food distribution costs at the same time restaurants are trying to hold down menu prices. (gasprices.aaa.com) The federal dietary guidelines changed this year, and the current 2025-2030 edition now tells consumers to “eat real food” and limit highly processed foods, added sugars, and refined carbohydrates. Nation’s Restaurant News said Technomic sees that guidance pushing menus toward protein and healthy fats while downplaying grains and sweets. (fns.usda.gov) (nrn.com) GLP-1 drugs are changing what diners order, not just whether they go out. Circana said 23% of U.S. households reported at least one GLP-1 user in September 2025, and those users are ordering more main dishes but fewer sides, snacks, breads, and alcoholic drinks. (nrn.com) (circana.com) Circana also found GLP-1 users are leaning harder into produce: 63% said they want more vegetables and 55% want more fruit. That gives operators a reason to test smaller portions, protein-heavy entrees, and nonalcoholic drinks instead of counting on fries, desserts, and beer to lift checks. (circana.com) (restaurant.org) Commodity costs are adding another layer. USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates raised the season-average farm price for corn by 5 cents to $4.15 a bushel, and USDA’s Food Price Outlook said food-away-from-home prices are projected to rise 3.9% in 2026. (farmpolicynews.illinois.edu) (ers.usda.gov) Corn matters beyond tortillas and cornbread because it feeds cattle, hogs, and poultry and flows into sweeteners, oils, and processed foods. When corn gets pricier, restaurants can feel it across beef, chicken, fryer oil, and packaged ingredients. (ers.usda.gov) (farmpolicynews.illinois.edu) The National Restaurant Association’s 2026 culinary forecast points in the same direction: protein-packed meals, low-alcohol drinks, cleaner recipes, and clear menu labeling all made its trend list. Operators still have to sell value, but the products doing that work are changing. (restaurant.org) For restaurants, the 2026 playbook is getting narrower: spend more carefully on inputs, give diners lighter and clearer choices, and keep prices from outrunning traffic. The menu is still the sales tool, but it is now doing cost control, health signaling, and demand management all at once. (nrn.com) (ers.usda.gov)