Heat pumps beat AC for month

Heat pumps did not just narrow the gap with conventional air conditioners in the United States — they moved ahead in at least one monthly shipment comparison, according to industry data cited by recent coverage. The figures come from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, which publishes monthly U.S. manufacturer shipment reports for central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps. AHRI says those reports are typically released on the second Friday of each month and track shipments made two months earlier. The milestone matters because a heat pump is not a separate summer-only appliance category. ENERGY STAR says an air-source heat pump provides both heating and cooling by moving heat into a home in winter and pulling heat out in summer. That means many homeowners shopping for a cooling replacement are effectively choosing between a one-way central AC system and a two-way heat pump. ### Did heat pumps really outsell standard AC units? (ahrinet.org) The Cool Down reported on July 8 that heat pumps “narrowly surpassed” air conditioners in monthly U.S. sales for the first time, citing a Canary Media report built on AHRI shipment data. Canary Media said heat pumps beat one-way air conditioners in at least one month in 2025, while Rocky Mountain Institute said heat pumps outsold one-way ACs in October, November and December of 2025. (energystar.gov) AHRI’s public statistics pages confirm that the trade group publishes the underlying monthly shipment series, though the detailed monthly tables are subscriber products. That means the broad claim is traceable to the industry’s main shipment source even where secondary outlets are doing the month-by-month comparison. ### Why are heat pumps gaining ground with buyers? ENERGY STAR says heat pumps provide heating and cooling from the same system and are more efficient because they move heat rather than generate it through combustion. (thecooldown.com) In a 2024 fact sheet, ENERGY STAR said an air-source heat pump can deliver up to three times more heat energy than the electrical energy it consumes. Rocky Mountain Institute said heat pumps have increased their share of residential cooling equipment sales over the past decade, reaching 47% in 2025. (ahrinet.org) The Cool Down also cited year-over-year movement in opposite directions, with heat-pump sales up and conventional AC sales down, as the categories converged. ### What changed on tax credits in 2026? The IRS says the federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit covered qualifying home improvements made through December 31, 2025. (energystar.gov) The agency’s main credit page and 2025 Form 5695 instructions both say the credit was available only for property placed in service through that date. That is the main caution for homeowners reading older heat-pump advice. (rmi.org) DOE still says tax credits and rebates can help with home upgrades, but for 2026 the federal tax-credit language that applied from 2023 through 2025 no longer covers newly installed systems in the same way, based on current IRS guidance. ### If the federal credit ended, what incentives are left? The Department of Energy says Home Energy Rebates are run by states, territories and Tribes, which determine program status and product eligibility locally. (irs.gov) DOE’s rebate pages say households can use those programs for qualifying efficiency upgrades and appliances, including heat pumps, depending on where they live and whether the local program has launched. (energy.gov) ENERGY STAR also maintains product and rebate tools that let buyers check certified equipment and available offers. That matters because eligibility can depend on the exact model, installation details and local program rules, not just the broad label “heat pump.” ### What should a homeowner compare before replacing a cooling system? A 2026 buyer should compare three things at once: the equipment type, the exact model efficiency, and the incentive stack available in that ZIP code. (energy.gov) ENERGY STAR says duct sealing and insulation can also materially affect heating and cooling performance, with duct improvements alone capable of improving efficiency by as much as 20% in some homes. (energystar.gov) DOE says state and local administrators control rebate rollout and eligibility, while the IRS says the federal home-improvement credit applied through December 31, 2025. The next practical step is to check DOE’s Home Energy Rebates program page, confirm local utility offers, and verify whether the specific heat pump model appears in ENERGY STAR or DOE product lookup tools before signing an installation contract. (energy.gov) (energystar.gov)