Xi enters Beijing summit with strengthened leverage after consolidating party backing

The Beijing summit is about the two biggest powers trying to stop a bad relationship from getting worse. That sounds modest, but right now modest is the whole point. China has now confirmed that Donald Trump will visit Beijing on May 14-15 to meet Xi Jinping, after the trip was pushed back during the Iran war. (bloomberg.com) What makes this meeting different is the balance of confidence going in. Trump wants deliverables. (cfr.org) Xi looks like he thinks time is on his side. And because the agenda now stretches from trade to Taiwan to Iran to AI, almost every outcome will be judged less by breakthrough language than by whether the two sides can keep rivalry compartmentalized. (cnbc.com) ### Why does Xi look stronger? Xi is not walking into this as a leader under obvious external pressure. In elite Chinese politics, he has spent years pushing the line that China is rising while the West is weakening, and recent events have helped that case inside the party. CFR’s roundup says his confidence got another boost after the 2025 tariff fight, when Trump escalated duties past 140% and Beijing answered with pressure on rare earths and magnets that the U.S. economy actually needed. (bloomberg.com) ### Why do rare earths matter so much? Because they are not some abstract commodity. They sit inside motors, magnets, electronics, defense systems, and a lot of industrial supply chains. CNBC notes that China’s suspensions and restrictions on rare earths and related magnets disrupted automakers and manufacturers well beyond the U.S. — including in Europe, Japan, and South Korea. (cnbc.com) That gives Beijing a lever that is both economic and political. ### What does Trump want out of this? Basically, stability with something he can call a win. The broader U.S. strategy described by CFR is no longer about solving the deepest structural disputes in one shot. It is about “not fighting” and managing a tense coexistence. (cfr.org) That means the White House is likely to chase visible, limited gains — on trade frictions, supply chains, maybe crisis management — rather than a grand bargain. ### Why is Iran suddenly part of a China summit? Because the Iran war changed the backdrop. The summit was delayed because of it, and the conflict now sits on the agenda alongside Taiwan and trade. The Strait of Hormuz matters here — it carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply, and any U.S.-China cooperation that helps reopen or stabilize that route could ease energy pressure fast. (cnbc.com) ### Has the Iran war also changed the power balance? At least a bit. Politico’s reporting says Chinese officials and analysts are studying U.S. military strain, munitions use, and alliance frictions exposed by the Iran campaign. That does not mean Beijing suddenly dominates. (cfr.org) But it does mean Xi can arrive believing Washington has fewer clean escalation options than it likes to advertise. ### So is this a reset? No — and that is the key to reading it. The issues that define the rivalry have not been solved: Taiwan, technology controls, China’s economic model, sanctions, and military deterrence are all still there. Even sympathetic analysts describe this summit as a stability exercise, not a settlement. (bloomberg.com) ### What should we actually watch? Watch for narrow deals and careful wording. If the two sides can ring-fence trade from security, or Iran from Taiwan, that counts as progress. If they cannot, then this summit becomes proof that even face-to-face diplomacy is no longer enough to keep the relationship from hardening further. (politico.com) ### Bottom line Xi seems to be entering Beijing with more leverage than Trump, not because China solved its problems, but because it found pressure points the U.S. cannot easily ignore. The summit matters for exactly that reason — it will show whether the world’s most dangerous rivalry can still be managed in pieces. (cfr.org) (cnbc.com) (cfr.org)