Polling: NZ tightens, India snapshots

New Zealand’s government still looks alive in the polls, but the easy cushion it had in early 2024 is gone. The latest Roy Morgan poll for March 2026 put the governing National Party, ACT New Zealand, and New Zealand First bloc on 47.5% and the Labour Party, Green Party, and Te Pāti Māori bloc on 48%, which translated to a 60-60 seat tie in a 120-seat Parliament. (stuff.co.nz) That shift matters more in New Zealand than in a winner-take-all system because voters choose both a local candidate and a party, and seats are shared out proportionally. Under mixed-member proportional voting, a bloc can lose power without any single party collapsing if a few points drift across the line. (en.wikipedia.org) The coalition itself is three parties held together by arithmetic: Christopher Luxon’s National Party, David Seymour’s ACT New Zealand, and Winston Peters’ New Zealand First. They have governed since November 2023 after the October 14, 2023 election and need a combined majority, not just National finishing first, to stay in office. (en.wikipedia.org) The recent polling picture is not one clean trend line but a tug-of-war between firms. A Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll published on April 7, 2026 had National at 29.8%, New Zealand First at 13.6%, and ACT at 9%, which projected a comfortable 65-seat coalition majority, while other recent polls had the race much tighter. (rnz.co.nz) That is why analysts keep looking at bloc charts instead of single-party headlines. The public polling page for the 2026 election now tracks the coalition bloc against the opposition bloc because a party rising from 10% to 14% can matter more than the largest party moving by one point. (en.wikipedia.org) India’s snapshot is different because these are state and territory contests, not one national parliamentary race. Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry all voted on April 9, 2026, and the Election Commission schedule set May 4, 2026 as counting day for all three. (thehindu.com 1) (thehindu.com 2) (ceopuducherry.py.gov.in) In Assam, most pre-poll surveys pointed to another win for the National Democratic Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party. A C-Voter survey reported by News18 projected about 96 to 98 seats for the alliance in the 126-seat assembly, well above the majority mark and above its 2021 performance. (news18.com) Puducherry looked smaller but mechanically similar. The 30-seat assembly needs 16 for a majority, and a People’s Pulse survey projected the National Democratic Alliance on 14 to 17 seats, with the Congress–Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance on 9 to 11 and actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam on 2 to 4. (outlookindia.com) (thesouthfirst.com) Kerala was the outlier because nearly every survey described a knife-edge fight. A Vote Tracker survey reported by News18 had the Left Democratic Front and the United Democratic Front on roughly 36% each, while a Manorama News–C Voter survey gave the United Democratic Front a seat edge at 69 to 81 against 57 to 69 for the Left Democratic Front in the 140-seat assembly. (news18.com) (onmanorama.com) The reason Kerala drew so much attention is that it has usually swung between the Left Democratic Front and the United Democratic Front, but the Left broke that pattern in 2021 by winning re-election with 99 of 140 seats under Pinarayi Vijayan. A close 2026 race would mean that exception may be ending after one term, not becoming a new rule. (en.wikipedia.org) So the common thread across both countries is narrower margins than the headline alliances would like. In New Zealand, a few points decide whether a three-party coalition survives November 2026, and in India, the same pre-vote polling week suggested one easy hold in Assam, one probable hold in Puducherry, and one genuine toss-up in Kerala. (en.wikipedia.org) (moneycontrol.com)