Steel demand outlook soft
The World Steel Association forecasts global steel demand will rise by only 0.3% in 2026 to 1.72 billion tonnes, indicating tepid industrial growth rather than a sharp contraction. The small uptick suggests modest demand conditions that could affect pricing and capacity planning across industrial supply chains. (thehindubusinessline.com)
The World Steel Association now expects global steel demand to barely grow in 2026, rising 0.3% to 1.724 billion tonnes. (worldsteel.org) That is a downgrade from the group’s October 2025 forecast, which had projected 2026 demand growth of 1.3% and total demand of 1.773 billion tonnes. Reuters reported the revision on April 14 and said the group tied part of the cut to the war’s impact on Middle East consumption. (worldsteel.org) (usnews.com) The new worldsteel table shows demand slipping in China, the biggest steel market, from 796.0 million tonnes in 2025 to 784.1 million in 2026. Outside China, demand is forecast to rise from 922.2 million tonnes to 940.1 million tonnes. (worldsteel.org) Steel demand is a readout on construction, auto production, machinery orders and public works, because those sectors buy most of the metal. A forecast this weak points to slow factory and building activity rather than a broad industrial collapse. (oecd.org) (worldsteel.org) The regional picture is uneven. Worldsteel’s April table shows the Middle East shrinking 7.4% in 2026, while the United States is seen growing 1.7%, the European Union plus the United Kingdom 1.3%, and India 7.4%. (worldsteel.org) That matters for mills deciding how much steel to make and at what price. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said in its 2025 Steel Outlook that planned capacity expansions risk deepening excess capacity, lowering utilisation rates and putting more pressure on prices and profits. (oecd.org) The supply side already looks heavier than demand. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said demand growth remained sluggish while capacity additions continued, with competition also distorted by subsidies in China, Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa. (oecd.org) Worldsteel still sees a better 2027, with global demand rising 2.2% to 1.762 billion tonnes. For 2026, though, the industry’s own forecast points to a market that is still growing, just not fast enough to absorb all the steel the world can make. (worldsteel.org)
