NOAA predicts below‑normal Atlantic season

NOAA said on Thursday it expects a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, citing the expected development of El Niño and forecasting fewer storms than the long-term average. The outlook covers the Atlantic basin season that runs from June 1 through November 30. The agency said there is a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. NOAA forecast 8 to 14 named storms, including 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. ### What exactly did NOAA forecast? NOAA’s National Weather Service said the 2026 outlook calls for 8 to 14 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes and 1 to 3 could reach major hurricane strength, meaning Category 3 or higher. The agency said those ranges sit below the 1991-2020 averages used in its outlooks. (noaa.gov) The Climate Prediction Center said the forecast also reflects accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, centered just above the cutoff between below-normal and near-normal. NOAA uses ACE to estimate the combined intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes over a season. ### Why is El Niño central to the forecast? (noaa.gov) NOAA said El Niño is expected to develop during the summer and persist through the peak of the hurricane season, a pattern that typically increases upper-level winds over the Atlantic and makes it harder for storms to organize. The agency said those stronger winds can disrupt tropical cyclone formation and intensification. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) National Weather Service materials describe El Niño as the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, marked by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. NOAA forecasters said it can reshape atmospheric circulation well beyond the Pacific basin. ### Does a quieter seasonal outlook mean lower risk on the coast? NOAA said residents, businesses and government agencies in coastal and near-coastal areas should prepare every year regardless of the seasonal forecast. (noaa.gov) The agency said one landfalling storm can still make a season destructive. The National Hurricane Center’s latest tropical weather outlook, issued Thursday evening, said no tropical cyclone formation was expected in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf over the next seven days. (weather.gov) That near-term calm does not change the official season dates or NOAA’s preparedness message. ### How should engineers and local officials read this outlook? (noaa.gov) NOAA’s outlook is a seasonal probability forecast, not a site-specific flood or wind design standard. The Climate Prediction Center said preparation decisions should still be made for every hurricane season, regardless of whether the overall activity forecast is below normal. (forecast.weather.gov) For coastal, drainage and pumping assets, that means the headline forecast does not remove the need to check exposed facilities against extreme-event performance, backup power, access for inspection and recovery after flooding. That is an inference drawn from NOAA’s warning that a single storm can still be destructive even in a quieter year. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### What happens next once the season starts? June 1 is the start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and NOAA said routine operational monitoring will continue through November 30. The National Hurricane Center said routine issuance of its tropical outlooks resumes with the season and that there are currently no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. (noaa.gov) Lakeland, Florida, was the site of NOAA’s May 21 announcement, according to the agency’s media advisory for the outlook briefing. From there, the next public milestones are the National Hurricane Center’s regular advisories and outlook products as conditions warrant through the season. (noaa.gov 1) (noaa.gov 2)